Week 14 Free Pick – New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins


The New England Patriots (-8) are heading south to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. This pivotal Sunday matchup kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and spectators can catch the action live on CBS.

Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

In this Sunday AFC game, New England is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Patriots are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are +260. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points. If New England starts trailing early on, it will likely result in a worthy in-game betting opportunity.

The sharp action has been siding with both the Dolphins and the under. The line originally opened at 9 and the game’s over/under was placed initially at 48.

Each team has been profitable this season as the Patriots have gained 2.4 units while the Dolphins are ahead 1.6 units.

The Patriots have gone 9-3 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 6-6 SU overall and 3-1 SU versus divisional foes.

The Pats hope to keep things rolling following a 24-10 victory over Minnesota in Week 13 where Tom Brady completed 24 passes on 32 attempts for 311 yards, along with one score and a pick. Sony Michel (63 rushing yards on 17 attempts) propelled the running attack while James White (seven receptions, 92 yards) and Julian Edelman (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Miami just earned a 21-17 win over Buffalo in Week 13. The defensive unit let the Bills run for 198 yards on 31 rush attempts. Josh Allen was a bright spot in the loss for Buffalo, accounting for 135 rushing yards on nine attempts. For Miami, Ryan Tannehill completed 16-of-24 passes for 137 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Frank Gore (21 yards on eight rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Kenny Stills (four receptions, 37 yards, one TD) and DeVante Parker (four catches, 43 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Each of these squads has a similar (45-55) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Patriots have run for 121.7 yards/game (including 155.3 per game versus East opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Dolphins haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re averaging 102.7 rushing yards per game (78.8 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.

It appears that the Patriots could hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed just 35 sacks while their D-line registered 42 sacks. The Dolphins offensive line has given up 33 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 30 occasions.

The Pats offensive scheme has tallied 282.7 yards/game in the air overall (293.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing TDs so far. The Dolphins have produced 220.0 pass yards per game (145 against AFC foes) and have 21 total pass scores.

Defensively, New England has allowed opponents to run for an average of 106.7 yards and pass for 274.8 yards per game. The Miami D has allowed 266.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 144.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 5.94 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins are yielding an ANY/A of 6.43.

Offensively, Brady has put up 3,059 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 66 percent of his 403 attempts with 18 passing scores and eight interceptions. He’s got a 7.04 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.67 over the last two outings.

Ryan Tannehill has managed to complete 101-of-153 passes for 1,109 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs for Miami. His ANY/A sits at 5.62 for the year and 7.00 over his past two outings.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins NFL Prediction

SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The O/U for New England’s last game going into it was 50.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 victory over Minnesota.
  • New England has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.0 over its last two.
  • Miami has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.6 over its last two.
  • The Miami offense has lost seven fumbles this season while New England has let six get away.
  • Over its last three matchups, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • New England has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a November 11th defeat to Tennessee accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
  • The O/U for Miami’s last outing was set at 40. The under cashed in the team’s 21-17 triumph over Buffalo.
  • Over its last three contests, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Dolphins have made 13 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Patriots have produced 15 such plays.
  • The New England defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Miami has given up nine such plays.
  • The New England offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami has created nine such runs.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Dolphins have given up 16 such runs.
  • The Miami defense has produced 20 sacks on the year while New England has 19.