Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction


The NBA’s top scoring defense will be a 3.5-point favorite at home in Bankers Life Fieldhouse, when the Indiana Pacers (15-10) meet the Sacramento Kings (13-11). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 8, 2018.

Sacramento Kings vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Pacers (8-point underdogs) defeated the Orlando Magic 112-90, while the Kings (5.5-point favorite) beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 129-110. The Indiana game went 9 points under the projected point total of 211, while the Sacramento game went 16.5 points over the projected point total of 222.5.

Sacramento dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 8.2 (better than their season average of 12.4) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.3 (above their season average of 22.2). Cleveland recorded marks of 15.2 and 21.9, respectively, for those same stats. Indiana, meanwhile, played a flawless game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 8.2 (better than their season average of 13.5) and a free throw rate of 0.161 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Orlando was 12.9 and 0.112, respectively. Indiana’s Kyle O’Quinn played well, recording 12 points and 10 rebounds. Meanwhile, Sacramento rallied around De’Aaron Fox, who recorded 30 points and 12 assists.

In their first matchup this season, Willie Cauley-Stein led the Kings to a 111-110 victory. He notched a double-double with 17 points and 13 rebounds. Sacramento covered as a 1.5-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 221 points, which was just under the projected point total of 225. Sacramento’s rebounding was their largest strength. The Kings had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. six) and total rebounds (46 vs. 42).

Games involving the Kings have typically finished over the total (65.2 percent). Sacramento holds records of 13-11 straight up (SU) and 14-9 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Sacramento, games including the Pacers tend to finish under the projected point total (58.3 percent). Indiana has a solid 15-10 SU record, but they struggle covering the spread (10-13-1 ATS).

The Kings’ Bogdan Bogdanovic has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 18 points,3.8 assists per game. Meanwhile, Bojan Bogdanovic has averaged 17 points during that same time frame for the Pacers.

The upper-echelon offense of Indiana will face off against the mid-tier defense of Sacramento. The Pacers currently rank seventh in effective field goal percentage (0.532), while the Kings are 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.538). The Pacers should have the edge on that side of the ball. It will also be a showdown of opposite styles as the up-and-down Kings rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Pacers rank 26th.

Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers rank 11 in assists per game (24.44) while the Kings rank 21 in assists allowed per game (24.791666666666668).
  • Indiana ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.4) while Sacramento ranks 29th (52.0).
  • The Pacers average 9.4 steals per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Kings rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
  • Sacramento puts up 21.5 fast-break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Indiana ranks 19th in fast-break points allowed per game (14.0).
  • Indiana averages 20.24 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 3 in the league. Sacramento ranks 13 in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.875).
  • The Pacers rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.4) while the Kings rank 23rd (14.3).
  • The Pacers rank 16 in three pointers allowed per game (31.52) while the Kings rank 28 (35.083333333333336).
  • Indiana ranks 17 in blocks per game (5.28) while Sacramento ranks 25 (4.333333333333333).
  • Indiana ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (42.4) while Sacramento ranks 27th (47.3).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Sacramento is 3-0 and Indiana is 8-1.
  • The Kings are 12-10 when they reach 100 points, while the Pacers are 12-5.
  • Sacramento is 7-5 ATS on the road, while Indiana is 5-6 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 8 of the Pacers’ 11 home games, while 11 of the Kings’ 12 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Kings are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pacers are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Sacramento has 4 overs and 1 under, while Indiana has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 119.0 points per game (3.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.2 points per game (1.9 above their season average).
  • The Pacers\u2019 average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 4.4 for the season.