Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Free Pick

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are heading west to play their divisional rival Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The action begins at 2:20 p.m. ET and fans can watch it on WLS and ATPT.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Odds

The Pirates are 5-3 SU and have gone 4-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 0.5 units ATS. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 2-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. The team’s lost 4.8 units for moneyline bettors and 7.3 units ATS.

Chicago games have an over/under record of 7-0-1 thus far in 2019. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-4.

Jameson Taillon (0-1, 3.46 ERA) is getting the nod for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Taillon struck out 179 hitters in 191 innings last year (32 starts) while finishing the season 14-10 overall with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He made three starts against the Cubs in 2018 and compiled a 2-0 record against them with a 2.29 ERA and 15 strikeouts.

The Cubbies will be turning to lefty Jon Lester (1-0, 3.00 ERA), who started 32 games last year while finishing the season 18-6 overall with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He recorded six starts against the Pirates a year ago and compiled a 4-1 record with a 3.09 ERA and 28 strikeouts.

As a unit, Chicago’s pitching staff has yielded 7.9 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 6.80 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has an 8.37 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. In three divisional games, Cubs starters have an ERA of 9.69 and the bullpen’s ERA is 8.25.

The Chicago hitters are putting up 6.9 runs per contest, including 6.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .268/.361/.469 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Right fielder Jason Heyward and shortstop Javier Baez have led the Cubs’ batters so far. Heyward is slashing .333/.400/.633 with 10 hits, eight RBIs and seven runs scored, and Baez’s line is .256/.310/.564 with 10 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs.

For the visitors, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 3.3 runs per game and its starters own a 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 8.06 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.00, along with a WHIP of 0.90 and a K/9 of 12.00.

The Pirates offense has slashed .249/.343/.396 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this year, including over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Second baseman Adam Frazier and first baseman Josh Bell have led Pittsburgh’s offense. Frazier is slashing .333/.429/.533 with 10 hits, three RBIs and five runs scored, while Bell (.310/.382/.621) is up to nine hits, two homers, eight RBIs and five runs scored.

The Cubs have lost 3.8 units and are 1-4 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in five of those games, compared to zero that’ve gone under.

Pirates at Cubs Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Cubs went 10-9 SU against the Pirates in 2018.
  • The Cubs’ bullpen managed 3.39 ERA against the Pirates last year.
  • The Pirates have a total OPS of .739 this season, including an OPS of .471 against left-handed pitchers. The Cubs’ OPS sits at .881 overall and their left / right split is nearly identical.