Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction 03/26/19

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Expect a defensive battle when the Orlando Magic (36-38), 5.5-point underdogs, meet the Miami Heat (36-37) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 205.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 26, 2019.

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Heat (1.5-point underdogs) defeated the Washington Wizards 113-108, while the Magic (10.5-point favorite) beat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-98. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 0.5 points over the projected point total of 220.5, while the Orlando game finished 12 points over the projected point total of 205.

Orlando dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 6.7 (better than their season average of 11.6) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 21.2). Philadelphia recorded marks of 15.1 and 16.2, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Washington. The Heat had a rate of 0.568 (above their season average of 0.516), while the Wizards posted a mark of 0.474 (below their season average of 0.536). Bam Adebayo had a good outing for Miami, putting up 16 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Meanwhile, Nikola Vucevic played a pivotal role for Orlando with 28 points and 11 rebounds.

In three contests against each other this year, the Magic have won two. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 206 points, just over the projected point total of 202. Orlando lost 115-91, covering as a 3-point favorite. The Heat’s 10.5 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Magic, who had a mark of 18.4. Justise Winslow was a standout player in the game, producing 22 points, six rebounds and five assists.

Oddsmakers have a tendency to place the total high when the Magic are involved, as 42 of their 73 games have finished under the total. Orlando heads into the game with records of 36-38 straight up (SU) and 37-33-3 against the spread (ATS).

In opposition of Orlando, just over half of Heat games have finished over the total. Additionally, Miami owns records of 36-37 SU and 39-33-1 ATS.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Miami ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.1) and Orlando is 27th (100.1).

Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Magic, ATS Winner – Magic, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Magic rank 27th in fast break points per game (10.4) while the Heat rank 29th (9.8).
  • Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.4) while Orlando ranks 25th (12.3).
  • The Heat rank 17th in points in the paint per game (48.6) while the Magic rank 27th (43.1).
  • Miami averages 46.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Orlando ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.2).
  • Orlando ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (31.9) while Miami ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (32.6).
  • The Magic rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 21st (17.3).
  • The Magic rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Heat rank 12th (4.9).
  • Orlando is second in the league with 22.9 assists allowed per game while Miami is fourth with 23.1 assists allowed per game.
  • Miami ranks 14th in steals per game (7.6) while Orlando ranks 28th (6.6).
  • Miami is 19-3 when they allow under 100 points, while Orlando is 18-3.
  • The Heat are 32-19 when they score above 100 points, while the Magic are 32-18.
  • Miami is 15-21-1 ATS at home, while Orlando is 19-16-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 20 of the Heat’s 37 home games, while 24 of the Magic’s 37 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Orlando has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.8 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (3.7 below their season average).
  • The Magic’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 17.4, up from 0.1 for the season.