The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (-14) are heavy favorites against the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners in the Capital One Orange Bowl. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 14 points in this game. The Sooners are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Crimson Tide are -735. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 82 points. It looks like there should be some decent in-game betting possibilities for this match.
The over is receiving the bulk of the early sharp action, as this game’s total initially opened at only 79.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Sooners have gained 3.0 units while the Crimson Tide are up 2.0 units.
The perfect Sooners are 12-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Crimson Tide are 13-0 SU.
The Sooners hope to keep things rolling after a 39-27 win over Texas on December 1 where their secondary allowed the Longhorns to air it out for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Collin Johnson was unstoppable for the Longhorns in that one with 177 yards and a score on eight catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Kyler Murray completed 25-of-34 passes for 379 yards and three touchdowns. Trey Sermon (65 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Murray (39 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack in the win. CeeDee Lamb (six receptions, 167 yards, one TD) and Marquise Brown (five catches, 54 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Alabama is coming off of a 35-28 win over Georgia. The defensive unit allowed the Bulldogs to pass for 301 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 153 yards. D’Andre Swift was a bright spot in the loss for Georgia, posting 75 rushing yards and a score on 16 attempts, along with 63 yards and a score on six catches. As a group, the Tide collectively completed 17-of-34 passes for 246 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Tua Tagovailoa went 10-for-25 for 164 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Jalen Hurts was seven-of-nine for 82 yards and one touchdown. Damien Harris (52 rushing yards on nine attempts) and Josh Jacobs (83 yards on eight carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Jaylen Waddle (four receptions, 113 yards, one TD) and Henry Ruggs III (three catches, 49 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Oklahoma has run the ball on 57.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Alabama has an overall rush percentage of 56.8. Having said that, the Sooners have rushed for 253.9 yards/game and have 40 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Tide haven’t been quite as productive, as they’re averaging 202.2 rushing yards per game and have 31 total rush TDs.
The Sooners offense has averaged 324.0 yards through the air overall and has 41 passing scores so far. The Tide have put up 325.5 pass yards per game and have 46 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Oklahoma has allowed 156.7 rush yards and 291.4 pass yards per game. The Alabama defense has given up 178.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 117.0 yards per game on the ground. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.06 to opposing QBs, while the Sooners have given up a 7.82 ANY/A.
Tagovailoa has connected on 174-of-262 passes for 3,029 yards, 32 TDs and four INTs for Alabama. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 12.51 for the season and 8.12 across his last two outings. In the other locker room, Murray has already put up 3,689 passing yards this year. He’s completed 221-of-313 attempts with 37 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. Murray’s got a 12.41 ANY/A, including 12.90 over the last two games.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick
SU Winner: Alabama, ATS Winner: Alabama, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- Oklahoma has produced 6.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.6 over its last two.
- Alabama has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 5.1 over its past two.
- Alabama has lost seven fumbles this season while Oklahoma has lost six.
- The Sooners offense has produced 21 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have accounted for 23 such plays.
- The Oklahoma defense has allowed 15 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Alabama has given up four such plays.
- The Oklahoma offense has created 35 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Alabama has created 19 such runs.
- The Sooners defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Crimson Tide have given up 15 such runs.
- The Alabama defense has produced 42 sacks on the year while Oklahoma has just 28.
