New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: Week 15 ATS Pick


The New Orleans Saints (-6.5) are heading northeast to face their NFC South nemesis Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. This Monday Night matchup gets going at 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to have the TV rights.

Thursday NightBetting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

In this early-week NFC game, New Orleans is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 6.5 points. The Saints are also receiving -260 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +220. If one squad catches a lucky break in the early stages it will produce a nice betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54 points.

The profitable Saints have gained 4.0 units so far in 2018 and are 10-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 5-8.

The Panthers are down 2.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-8 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-6.

The Saints have gone 11-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 6-7 SU overall and 1-2 SU against divisional foes.

The Saints are coming off a resounding 28-14 win over Tampa Bay in Week 14. Drew Brees completed 24-of-31 passes for 201 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Mark Ingram (52 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Alvin Kamara (51 yards on 12 carries) propelled the ground attack while Michael Thomas (11 receptions, 98 yards) and Kamara (five catches, 36 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 14, Cleveland knocked off this Carolina crew by a score of 26-20. The Panthers defensive unit let the Browns run for 116 yards on 21 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jarvis Landry put up a good showing for Cleveland, accounting for 54 rushing yards and a score on two attempts, along with 57 yards on three catches. For Carolina, Cam Newton completed 26-of-42 passes for 265 yards and one interception. Christian McCaffrey (63 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the running attack while Ian Thomas (nine receptions, 77 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

New Orleans has run the ball on 48.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 42.6 percent. The Saints have rushed for 125.3 yards/game (including 109.0 per game versus South opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Panthers are averaging 137.4 rush yards per game (156.0 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

The Saints offense has averaged 271.3 yards in the air overall (301.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 31 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have recorded 254.6 pass yards per game (294 in the NFC) and have 24 total pass scores.

New Orleans has let opponents run for an average of 77.6 yards and pass for 291.8 yards per game. The Carolina defense has given up 269.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 97.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Saints have given up an ANY/A of 6.97 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers are allowing an ANY/A of 7.10.

Newton has completed 276-of-401 passes for 2,964 yards, 22 TDs and eight INTs for Carolina. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.84 for the season and 4.03 across his past two outings. In the other locker room, Brees is up to 3,336 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 296-of-387 attempts with 30 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Brees has a 9.35 ANY/A for the year, though that number is 4.18 over the past two outings.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for New Orleans’ last game going into it was 55.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-14 win over Tampa Bay.
  • As a team, New Orleans has averaged 3.9 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 3.4 over its last two.
  • Carolina has averaged 6.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.0 over its last two.
  • The Carolina offense has lost four fumbles this season while New Orleans has lost eight.
  • In its last three matches, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • New Orleans has won 12 of its last 13 games SU, with a November 29th defeat to Dallas accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
  • The O/U for Carolina’s previous match was set at 48. The under cashed in the team’s 26-20 defeat to Cleveland.
  • Over its last three matches, Carolina is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Saints offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Panthers have put up three such plays.
  • The New Orleans defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Carolina has given up 10 such plays.
  • The New Orleans offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Carolina has created 13 such runs.
  • The Saints defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up eight such runs.
  • The New Orleans defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 41 times this season. Carolina has registered just 30 sacks.