New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Free Week 14 Betting Prediction


The New Orleans Saints (-8) are traveling east to battle their NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FOX.

Week 14 Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this Sunday NFC game. The Saints are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Buccaneers are +260. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points. If the favorites give up points early, it’ll likely result in a worthwhile betting scenario in-game.

The game’s total has shifted downward after initially being set at 57.5. The opening spread of 8 has remained firm.

The Saints are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.0 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 5-7.

The Buccaneers have gained 0.2 units this season. The team is 5-6-1 ATS and the over has hit in eight of its games.

The Saints have gone 10-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are 5-7 SU overall and 2-2 SU versus divisional foes.

The Saints fell to Dallas 13-10 in a Week 13 nailbiter where their defense allowed the Cowboys to eat up the clock by rushing for 100 yards on 31 attempts. On the offense, Drew Brees completed 18 passes for only 127 yards, along with a score and a pick. Alvin Kamara (only 36 yards on 11 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Kamara (eight receptions, 36 yards) and Michael Thomas (five catches, 40 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Tampa Bay is coming off of a 24-17 win over Carolina in Week 13. Jameis Winston completed 20-of-30 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Peyton Barber (45 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game while Adam Humphries (seven receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Chris Godwin (five catches, 101 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

New Orleans has run the ball on 48.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tampa Bay has an overall rush percentage of 38.6 percent. The Saints have produced 127.4 rush yards per game (including 112.0 per game against South opponents) and have 19 scores on the ground this year. The Bucs are logging 98.2 rushing yards per game (102.5 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.

Based on the numbers so far, it appears that the Saints may hold an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has logged 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Buccaneers have ran for 3.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.0 to opponents.

The Saints offense has averaged 277.2 yards in the air overall (335.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 30 passing scores so far. The Bucs have put up a ridiculous 358.9 pass yards per outing (326 against NFC competition) and have 29 total pass TDs.

Defensively, New Orleans has allowed 75.4 rush yards and 298.3 pass yards per game. The Tampa Bay defense has given up 292.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.0 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.23 to opponents, while the Bucs have given up a 7.99 ANY/A.

Offensively, Brees is up to 3,091 passing yards this year, and has completed 76 percent of his 362 attempts with 26 scores through the air and only two interceptions. He has a 9.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.40 over the last two outings.

On the other sideline, Jameis Winston has completed 128-of-194 passes for 1,629 yards, 10 TDs and 11 INTs. Winston’s ANY/A stands at 5.90 for the season and 8.27 across his last two outings.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Prediction

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for New Orleans’ last game was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 13-10 loss to Dallas.
  • New Orleans has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.6 over its past two.
  • Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.
  • Over its last three contests, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Tampa Bay’s last game was set at 52.5. The under cashed in that 24-17 triumph over Carolina.
  • Over its last three contests, Tampa Bay is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Saints offense has registered four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Buccaneers have accounted for 13 such plays.
  • The New Orleans defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Tampa Bay has given up five such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced five rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New Orleans offense has recorded 32 running plays of 10+ yards while Tampa Bay has accounted for 34 such plays.
  • The Saints defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buccaneers have given up 13 such runs.
  • The New Orleans defense has 37 sacks on the year while Tampa Bay has 33.