Head Coach Frank Maile and the Utah State Aggies (-9) are coming into the New Mexico Bowl as heavy favorites as they prepare to battle Coach Seth Littrell and the North Texas Mean Green. This daytime game will get underway at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Utah State Aggies vs. North Texas Mean Green
In this Saturday game, Utah State has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 9 points. The Mean Green are also receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -360. If one school can catch a lucky break early it will generate a reasonable in-game betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 67.5 points.
Early action has swayed toward both the Mean Green and the over. The line initially opened at -10 and the game’s over/under was originally only 64.5.
The underwhelming Mean Green are down 8.0 units so far in 2018 and 4-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 1-11.
The surprising Aggies have gained 4.0 units this season. The team is 9-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 8-3-1.
The Mean Green have gone 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Aggies are 10-2 SU.
The Mean Green just got a 24-21 win over UTSA on November 24 where Mason Fine completed 26-of-36 passes for 320 yards, two scores and one interception. DeAndre Torrey (155 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Jalen Guyton (five receptions, 78 yards) and Michael Lawrence (three catches, 69 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Back on November 24, Boise State knocked off this Utah State team by a score of 33-24. The Aggies defense let the Broncos pass for 310 yards while rushing for 199 yards and three scores. Alexander Mattison torched the defense, putting up 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 37 attempts for Boise State. For Utah State, Jordan Love completed 29-of-47 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Darwin Thompson (61 rushing yards on 11 attempts) spearheaded the running game as Jalen Greene (eight receptions, 47 yards, one TD) and Aaren Vaughns (seven catches, 107 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
North Texas has run the ball on 47.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 51.0 percent. The Mean Green have produced 156.6 rush yards/game and have 24 scores on the ground this year. The Aggies are putting up 203.7 rushing yards per game and have 34 total rush TDs.
The Mean Green offense has tallied 316.3 yards per game in the air overall and has 27 passing scores so far. The Aggies have produced 288.8 pass yards per outing and have 28 total pass TDs.
Defensively, North Texas has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 113.4 yards and pass for 246.1 yards per game. The Utah State D has allowed 240.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Mean Green have given up an ANY/A of 4.85 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies are yielding an ANY/A of 4.87.
Offensively, Fine has already put up 3,439 passing yards this year, and has completed 64 percent of his 424 attempts with 25 passing scores and only three interceptions. He’s got an 8.20 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.18 over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Jordan Love has connected on 231-of-350 passes for 3,039 yards, 27 TDs and five INTs. Love’s ANY/A sits at 9.21 for the year and 7.78 over his last two games.
North Texas Mean Green vs. Utah State Aggies NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: Utah State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Mean Green offense has produced 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aggies have accounted for 10 such plays.
- The North Texas defense has allowed 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Utah State has given up 11 such plays.
- The North Texas offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Utah State has created 28 such runs.
- The Mean Green defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Aggies have given up 13 such runs.
- The North Texas defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 33 times this season. Utah State has recorded 30 sacks.
- North Texas has averaged 5.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.8 over its last two.
- Utah State has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.3 over its past two.
