Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz Betting Prediction


The Miami Heat (11-15) will travel to Vivint Smart Home Arena to square off with the Utah Jazz (13-15). The Heat opened as 6-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 209 points and action starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 12, 2018.

Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz ATS Odds

Both teams fell in their last game. The Heat (5.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 108-105, while the Jazz (5-point underdogs) fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 122-113. The Miami game finished 8.5 points under the projected point total of 221.5, while the Utah game finished 17 points over the projected point total of 218.

Miami had a better offensive rebounding percentage (29.2 vs. 25.0) while Utah had a better effective field goal percentage (0.560 vs. 0.553). Rudy Gobert had a solid outing for Utah with 13 points and 14 rebounds. Justise Winslow played well for Miami, recording 28 points and seven rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Hassan Whiteside led the Heat to a 102-100 victory. He recorded a double-double with 23 points and 20 rebounds. The two teams combined to score 202 points, which was under the projected point total of 208.5, and Miami covered as a 4-point underdog. Miami’s 0.187 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Utah, who had a rate of 0.124.

Of the Heat’s 26 games, 14 have finished over the O/U total. Miami comes into the contest with records of 11-15 straight up (SU) and 13-13 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Jazz are involved, as 17 of their 26 games have ended over the projected point total. Moreover, Utah owns records of 13-15 SU and 13-15 ATS.

Kelly Olynyk has been solid recently for Miami, averaging 14 points,7.0 rebounds,1.2 steals over the last five games.

The aggressive Utah offense could be living from the free throw line in this matchup. The Jazz currently rank fourth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.223, while Miami ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.215).

Heat at Jazz Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Jazz rank 4 in fast break points allowed per game (10.75) while the Heat rank 10 (12.538461538461538).
  • Utah ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while Miami ranks 26th (6.0).
  • The Jazz rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while the Heat rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
  • Miami ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.9) while Utah ranks 20th (49.6).
  • Utah ranks 2 in three pointers allowed per game (26.821428571428573) while Miami ranks 10 (30.03846153846154).
  • The Jazz rank eighth in second chance points allowed per game (12.1) while the Heat rank 28th (15.3).
  • The Jazz rank 5 in steals per game (9) while the Heat rank 17 (7.6923076923076925).
  • Miami ranks 5 in assists allowed per game (21.73076923076923) while Utah ranks 6 (21.857142857142858).
  • Miami ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.7) while Utah ranks 23rd (42.9).
  • Miami is 5-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Utah is 5-2.
  • In games where they score over 100 points, the Jazz are 11-8 and the Heat are 10-11.
  • Utah is 5-5 ATS at home, while Miami is 8-4 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 8 of the Jazz’s 10 home games, while 7 of the Heat’s 12 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Jazz are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push, while Utah has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 4.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.3 points.
  • During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 113.4 points per game (6.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (1.8 below their season average).