Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Betting Prediction


The Miami Heat (11-14) will travel to the Staples Center to go head-to-head against the Los Angeles Lakers (16-10). The Heat opened as 6-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points and it will air on NBATV at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 10, 2018.

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Lakers (2.5-point underdogs) defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 111-88, while the Heat (9.5-point underdog) beat the Los Angeles Clippers 121-98. The Los Angeles game went 9.5 points under the projected point total of 208.5, while the Miami game hit the projected point total of 219.

Miami dominated every stat category in the game. They had a solid turnover percentage of 9.2 (better than their season average of 12.9) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.0 (above their season average of 25.9). Los Angeles was 12.8 and 21.4, respectively, for those same stats. The Lakers, on the other hand, had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 41.3 (above their season average of 21.9) and held the Grizzlies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.440 (below their season average of 0.516). Kyle Kuzma led the way for Los Angeles, putting up 20 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Meanwhile, Miami rallied around Justise Winslow, who contributed 21 points, nine assists and six rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, LeBron James led the Lakers to a 113-97 win. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 51 points. Los Angeles covered as a 1.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 210 points, which was under the projected point total of 224.5. The Lakers’ 7.9 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Heat, who had a mark of 11.2.

Oddsmakers tend to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 14 of their 25 games have gone over the total. Miami comes into the contest with records of 11-14 straight up (SU) and 12-13 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Miami, Lakers games tend to finish under the projected point total (61.5 percent). Los Angeles is 16-10 SU, but they are just 11-14-1 ATS.

The Heat’s Kelly Olynyk has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 13 points,5.6 rebounds,1.2 steals per game. Meanwhile, Kuzma has averaged 20 points,9.2 rebounds,3.6 assists during that same time frame for the Lakers.

This contest should be a matchup of contrasting tempos. Los Angeles has preferred an up-tempo style of play (second in possessions per game), while Miami has been more methodical (13th in possessions per game).

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 9 in three pointers attempted per game (33.72) while the Lakers rank 12 in three pointers allowed per game (30.76923076923077).
  • Los Angeles averages 6.0 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Miami ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (6.0).
  • The Lakers average 17.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Heat rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.1).
  • Miami ranks sixth in rebounds per game (47.7) while Los Angeles ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (46.4).
  • Miami averages 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 17 in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 22 in steals allowed per game (8.192307692307692).
  • The Lakers rank second in fast break points per game (20.4) while the Heat rank 21st (11.2).
  • The Lakers rank 13 in second chance points per game (13.538461538461538) while the Heat rank 29 in second chance points allowed per game (15.68).
  • Miami ranks 5 in assists allowed per game (21.64) while Los Angeles ranks 8 (23.23076923076923).
  • Miami ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.7) while Los Angeles ranks 22nd (50.8).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Los Angeles is 6-0 and Miami is 5-1.
  • The Heat are 10-10 when they score more than 100 points, while the Lakers are 15-9.
  • Los Angeles is 6-7-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 7-4 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of the Heat’s 11 road games, while 9 of the Lakers’ 14 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Lakers are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 4-1.
  • In their last five games, Los Angeles has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
  • The Lakers\u2019 average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.6, up from 2.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 106.8 points per game (1.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (8.1 below their season average).