Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Free Week 14 Betting Prediction


A couple of franchises with noticeably different play-calling schemes, the Houston Texans (-5) are set to welcome the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. This vital AFC South showdown kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS is in line to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis is a live dog and is currently getting 5 points in this Sunday AFC game. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to put down $200 to win $100 back on the Texans (-200). The Colts are getting +170 moneyline odds. If one team can get out in front early it’ll result in a reasonable live betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.

Sharp bettors have been hammering both the Texans and the under. The line initially opened at -4 and the game’s total was originally 49.5.

The Colts have lost 0.1 units so far and are 5-6-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-6.

The Texans are up 4.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-5-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-7.

The Colts have gone 6-6 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 9-3 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.

The Colts dropped one to Jacksonville 6-0 in a Week 13 matchup where Andrew Luck completed 33-of-52 passes for 248 yards and one interception. Marlon Mack (just 27 yards on eight rushes) provided the running attack while Eric Ebron (10 receptions, 81 yards) and Hines (nine catches, 50 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Houston just put together a 29-13 win over Cleveland in Week 13. The defensive secondary allowed the Browns to air it out for 397 yards. Jarvis Landry had a productive outing in the loss, recording 103 yards on six catches for Cleveland. For Houston, Deshaun Watson completed 22-of-31 passes for 224 yards and one touchdown. Lamar Miller (103 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and Alfred Blue (54 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game while DeAndre Hopkins (seven receptions, 91 yards) and DeAndre Carter (six catches, 32 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Indianapolis has run the ball on 37.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has an overall rush percentage of 50.9 percent. The Colts have rushed for 106.9 yards/game (including 66.3 per game against South opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Texans are averaging 140.8 rushing yards per game (172.3 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Texans could hold an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Colts have registered 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 3.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Colts offense has tallied 280.2 yards/contest in the air overall (323.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 32 passing scores so far. The Texans have produced 252.6 pass yards per outing (259 in the AFC) and have 21 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Indianapolis has let opponents run for an average of 104.1 yards and throw for 257.2 yards per game. The Houston D has allowed 270.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 91.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Texans are yielding an ANY/A of 6.08.

Passing-wise, Luck has amassed 3,017 yards on the year, and has connected on 67 percent of his 452 attempts with 29 scores through the air and 10 interceptions. He’s got a 6.55 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.18 over the last two outings.

Deshaun Watson has completed 223-of-340 passes for 2,821 yards, 19 TDs and nine INTs for Houston. His ANY/A sits at 6.88 for the year and 6.95 across his last two games.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Colts, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Houston defensive unit has created 34 sacks on the year while Indianapolis has 30.
  • Houston has lost five fumbles in 2018 while the Indianapolis offense has let seven get away.
  • The Texans have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Colts have produced 11 such plays.
  • The Indianapolis defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Houston has given up nine such plays.
  • Both teams have produced seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Indianapolis offense has recorded 30 running plays of 10+ yards while Houston has accounted for 43 such plays.
  • The Colts defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Texans have given up three such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Houston’s last game was 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-13 victory over Cleveland.
  • Over its last three contests, Houston is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, Indianapolis is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Indianapolis’ last game was set at 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 6-0 loss to Jacksonville.
  • Indianapolis, as a team, has produced 3.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
  • Houston has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.4 over its last two.