The NBA’s top scoring defense will be 10.5-point underdogs on the road at Fiserv Forum, when the Indiana Pacers (42-23) clash with the Milwaukee Bucks (48-16). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222.5 points and it will air on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 7, 2019.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds
The Pacers beat the Chicago Bulls in their last matchup, 105-96, covering as 6.5-point favorites. The Bucks, meanwhile, were defeated by the Phoenix Suns, 114-105, and failed to cover as 13.5-point underdogs. The Indiana game went 17 points under the projected point total of 218, while the Milwaukee game finished 13.5 points under the projected point total of 232.5.
Indiana’s 0.518 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Chicago, who had a mark of 0.409. The Pacers’ mark was below their season average of 0.535, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 0.509. Milwaukee, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.6 (above their season average of 20.8). Giannis Antetokounmpo played a pivotal role for Milwaukee with 21 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Meanwhile, Indiana received a boost from Bojan Bogdanovic, who contributed 27 points and six rebounds.
The Bucks lead the season series two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 203 points, well under the projected point total of 219. Milwaukee won 106-97, covering as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Bucks had 10 offensive rebounds and 52 total rebounds, while the Pacers had four and 43, respectively. Antetokounmpo played a huge role in the victory, recording a triple-double with 33 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists.
Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Pacers are involved, as 37 of their 65 games have ended under the total. Indiana heads into the contest with records of 42-23 straight up (SU) and 33-31-1 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Indiana, a little over half of Bucks games have finished under the total. Additionally, Milwaukee is 48-16 SU and 37-25-2 ATS.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the productive offense of Milwaukee (third in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 111.8) takes on the top-notch defense of Indiana (third in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 104.1). Additionally, second chance points could be few and far between for the Pacers. They rank 21st in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 22.0 percent, while the Bucks are the best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 80.2 percent).
Pacers at Bucks Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Pacers rank third in points off turnovers per game (19.7) while the Bucks rank 11th (17.3).
- Milwaukee ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (38.0) while Indiana ranks 28th (25.6).
- The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while the Pacers rank 16th (13.8).
- Indiana ranks fourth in steals per game (8.8) while Milwaukee ranks 18th (7.5).
- Indiana ranks 15th in second chance points per game (13.4) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (11.5).
- The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (49.2) while the Pacers rank 24th (43.1).
- The Bucks rank third in points in the paint per game (54.2) while the Pacers rank 16th (48.7).
- Indiana averages 26.1 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Milwaukee ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- Milwaukee ranks second in blocks per game (6.1) while Indiana ranks 17th (5.1).
- Indiana is 22-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Milwaukee is 16-1.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Bucks are 47-12 and the Pacers are 37-13.
- Milwaukee is 17-13 ATS at home, while Indiana is 13-17-1 ATS on the road.
- Of the Pacers’ 31 road games, they have 17 overs and 14 unders.
- The Bucks have 15 overs and 15 unders in 30 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Indiana and Milwaukee have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Bucks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pacers are 2-3.
- During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 121.0 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 119.0 points per game (10.8 above their season average).
- The Pacers have been outscored by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Indiana has defeated opponents by an average of 5.0 points.
