An eight-game home winning streak is on the line for the Dallas Mavericks (12-11), who will be 2.5-point underdogs when they square off with the Houston Rockets (11-13) at American Airlines Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points and it can be seen on ATTSN Southwest at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 8, 2018.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
Both teams failed to cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Mavericks (5.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the New Orleans Pelicans, 132-106, while the Rockets (1-point underdogs) fell to the Utah Jazz, 118-91. The Dallas game finished 12 points over the projected point total of 226, while the Houston game finished 6 points under the projected point total of 215.
Houston had a better offensive rebounding percentage (28.6 vs. 29.3) while Dallas held New Orleans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8 (below their season average of 26.9). Dwight Powell was a key piece for Dallas with 12 points and 10 rebounds. Clint Capela had a good outing for Houston, putting up 12 points and 10 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, J.J. Barea led the Mavericks to a 128-108 victory. He recorded a double-double with 13 points and 12 assists. Dallas covered as a 6-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 236 points, which was well over the projected point total of 217.5. Dallas’ free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Houston. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.224, while the Rockets posted a mark of 0.172.
Vegas tends to place the total low when the Rockets are involved, as 58.3 percent of their contests have ended over the O/U total. Houston holds records of 11-13 straight up (SU) and 9-15 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Houston, games featuring the Mavericks also have typically gone over the total (56.5 percent). Further, Dallas is 12-11 SU and 15-8 ATS.
The physical Dallas offense could be living from the charity stripe in this showdown. The Mavericks currently rank third in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.227, while Houston ranks 29th in FTA rate allowed (0.239).
Rockets at Mavericks Odds Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 13 in points off turnovers per game (17.608695652173914) while the Rockets rank 21 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.875).
- Houston ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (10.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (16.2).
- The Mavericks rank 15th in rebounds per game (45.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.1).
- Houston ranks 13th in steals per game (8.1) while Dallas ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (9.3).
- Houston ranks 1 in three pointers attempted per game (42.041666666666664) while Dallas ranks 12 in three pointers allowed per game (30.391304347826086).
- The Mavericks rank sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.9) while the Rockets rank 25th (51.0).
- The Mavericks rank 5 in second chance points allowed per game (11.521739130434783) while the Rockets rank 17 (13.875).
- Houston averages 6 blocks per game, which ranks 6 in the league. Dallas ranks 9 in blocks allowed per game (4.739130434782608).
- Houston ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (21.6) while Dallas ranks 19th (24.3).
- When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and Houston is 4-2.
- The Mavericks are 12-10 when they reach the century mark, while the Rockets are 9-7.
- Dallas is 10-2 ATS at home, while Houston is 5-9 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 7 of the Mavericks’ 12 home games, while 7 of the Rockets’ 14 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Houston and Dallas have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 2-3.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 112.4 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (3.6 above their season average).
- The Rockets\u2019 average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.4, up from 1.4 for the season.
