Florida Gators at Michigan Wolverines – NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

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The No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-8) are entering the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl as big favorites against the No. 10 Florida Gators. Interested parties can catch the action live on ESPN and this crucial daytime game starts at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Florida Gators vs. Michigan Wolverines

In this Saturday game, Michigan is getting picked as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Gators are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Wolverines are -330. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points, and if one team catches a lucky break early on, it would likely create a decent in-game betting opportunity.

The total has yet to change after being initially set at 50.5. Having said that, the opening line was -6 and sharp bettors are siding with the Wolverines.

The Gators are down 1.8 units so far and 8-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.

The Wolverines have gained 2.6 units this season. The team is 6-6 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-5-1.

The Gators have gone 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Wolverines are 10-2 SU.

The Gators are looking to keep things going after a solid 41-14 win over Florida State on November 24Their defense allowed the Seminoles to run for 139 yards on 35 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Tamorrion Terry had a good day for the Seminoles in that one with 78 yards on three catches. On the offensive side, Feleipe Franks completed 16 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns. Jordan Scarlett (88 yards on 20 rushes, one TD) and Lamical Perine (129 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Trevon Grimes (five receptions, 118 yards, one TD) and Van Jefferson (four catches, 92 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

Back on November 24, Ohio State knocked off this Michigan team by a score of 62-39. The Wolverines defense let the Buckeyes pass for 396 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 171 yards. Parris Campbell was outstanding, putting up 78 rushing yards and a score on one attempt, along with 192 yards and two touchdowns on six catches for the Buckeyes. For Michigan, Shea Patterson completed 20-of-34 passes for 187 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Karan Higdon (72 yards on 15 rush attempts) handled the running game as Donovan Peoples-Jones (seven receptions, 64 yards) and Nico Collins (four catches, 91 yards, two TDs) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Florida has run the ball on 58.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan has an overall rush percentage of 62.6 percent. The Gators have produced 209.5 rush yards/game and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Wolverines are averaging 214.3 rush yards per game and have 26 total rushing TDs.

The Gators offensive scheme has logged 217.2 yards/game through the air overall and has 27 passing TDs so far. The Wolverines have put up 212.9 pass yards per game and have 23 total pass scores.

Florida has allowed opponents to run for an average of 166.0 yards and pass for 173.1 yards per game. The Michigan defense has given up 145.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolverines are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.83 to opposing QBs, while the Gators have allowed a 4.39 ANY/A.

Patterson has completed 172-of-261 passes for 2,114 yards, 20 TDs and four INTs. Patterson’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.00 for the season and 6.32 over his past two outings. In the other huddle, Franks has put up 2,010 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 156-of-272 attempts with 20 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. Franks has a 7.25 ANY/A for the year, though that number sits at 11.93 over the past two games.

These two programs faced off last year with the final outcome being a 33-17 victory for Michigan.

Florida Gators vs. Michigan Wolverines Free Prediction

SU Winner: Michigan, ATS Winner: Michigan, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Florida’s last game was set at 52. The over cashed in the team’s 41-14 win over Florida State.
  • As a team, Florida has produced 5.7 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
  • Michigan has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.6 over its past two.
  • The Michigan offense has lost three fumbles this season while Florida has let eight get away.
  • Over its last three games, Florida is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Michigan’s previous game going into it was 51. The over cashed in the team’s 62-39 defeat to Ohio State.
  • Over its last three matches, Michigan is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Gators offense has created seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wolverines have accounted for 11 such plays.
  • The Florida defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan has given up four such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced 21 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Florida offense has recorded 75 running plays of 10+ yards while Michigan has accounted for 67 such plays.
  • The Gators defense has allowed 23 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolverines have given up 16 such runs.
  • The Florida D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times this year. Michigan has produced 31 sacks.