Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Week 16 Free Betting Prediction

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The Denver Broncos (-2.5) and Oakland Raiders will do battle on the grass at Oakland Coliseum. This Monday Night showdown kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.

Thursday Night FootballBetting Preview: Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

In this early-week AFC game, Denver is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Broncos are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Raiders are +120. There could be some good live betting opportunities in this game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

This game’s opening line was 3, while the O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 45.

The Broncos are down 1.4 units this season and 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-11.

The Raiders are down 5.3 units in 2018. The team is 5-9 ATS and has an even O/U record of 7-7.

The Broncos have gone 6-8 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against AFC West opponents. The Raiders are 3-11 SU overall and 0-4 SU against divisional foes.

The Broncos are trying to bounce back after a narrow 17-16 defeat to Cleveland last weekTheir defense allowed the Browns to rush for 134 yards on 28 attempts. Nick Chubb logged a productive day for the Browns in that one with 100 rushing yards on 20 attempts. On the offensive side, Case Keenum completed 31-of-48 passes for 257 yards and two interceptions. Phillip Lindsay (only 24 yards on 14 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while DaeSean Hamilton (seven receptions, 46 yards) and Tim Patrick (five catches, 65 yards) manned the receiving duties.

In Week 15, Cincinnati knocked off this Oakland team by a score of 30-16. The Raiders defense let the Bengals run for 171 yards on 41 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Joe Mixon had a productive showing, posting 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 27 attempts for Cincinnati. For Oakland, Derek Carr completed 21-of-38 passes for 263 yards and one touchdown. Doug Martin (39 yards on nine rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Jordy Nelson (six receptions, 88 yards) and Richard (five catches, 67 yards) led the receiving corps.

Each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Denver has run the ball on 40.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Oakland has an overall rush percentage of 39.8. Having said that, the Broncos have rushed for 123.2 yards/game (including 156.0 per game against West opponents) and have 18 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Raiders haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re totaling 99.1 rushing yards per game (104.5 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.

It seems like the Broncos could own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.6 to opponents. The Raiders have tallied 4.2 yards per carry and allowed 4.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Broncos offensive scheme has logged 245.4 yards per contest in the air overall (236.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Raiders have put up 264.6 pass yards per contest (271 in the AFC) and have 19 total pass TDs.

Denver has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 120.2 yards and throw for 278.4 yards per game. The Oakland defense has allowed 244.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 146.4 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.35 to opposing QBs, while the Raiders have given up an 8.15 ANY/A.

Offensively, Keenum has amassed 3,210 passing yards this year, and has connected on 63 percent of his 459 attempts with 14 passing scores and 12 interceptions. He has a 5.60 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.61 over the last two games.

For the home team, Derek Carr has completed 313-of-460 passes for 3,375 yards, 17 TDs and eight INTs. Carr’s ANY/A sits at 6.18 for the season and 7.26 over his past two games.

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Raiders, ATS Winner: Raiders, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Broncos offense has created eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Raiders have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The Denver defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Oakland has given up 12 such plays.
  • The Denver offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Oakland has created seven such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Raiders have given up 11 such runs.
  • The Denver D has 42 sacks on the year while Oakland has just 12.
  • As a team, Denver has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.9 over its last two.
  • Oakland has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its past two.
  • In its last three matchups, Oakland is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Denver’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-16 loss to Cleveland.
  • In its last three games, Denver is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Oakland’s last matchup was 45.5. The over cashed in that 30-16 defeat to Cincinnati.