Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction


A six-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Denver Nuggets (20-9), who will be 4-point favorites when they welcome the Dallas Mavericks (15-13) to Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 18, 2018.

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

The Nuggets hope to maintain momentum after covering the 3-point spread against the Toronto Raptors in their last contest, 95-86. The Mavericks, on the other hand, were defeated by the Sacramento Kings, 120-113, and failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Denver game finished 28.5 points under the projected point total of 209.5, while the Dallas game went 11 points over the projected point total of 222.

Denver played a nearly perfect contest. They had a free throw rate of 0.153 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 8.0 (better than their season average of 12.1). Toronto put up marks of 0.102 and 10.5, respectively, for those same stats. Dallas, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.8 (above their season average of 24.0). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver with 26 points and nine rebounds. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas, putting up 28 points, nine assists and six rebounds.

This was a highly contested series last year, as the teams split their four games last season. In the most recent contest, the Mavericks won 118-107. Dallas’ effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Denver. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.561 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.473. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Vegas is highly accurate when predicting totals of Mavericks games, with an even split between overs and unders. Dallas comes into the game with records of 15-13 straight up (SU) and 17-11 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Nuggets’ 29 games, 18 have finished under the total. Additionally, Denver owns records of 20-9 SU and 18-11 ATS.

Jokic and Monte Morris have played well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 21 points,11.4 rebounds,8.2 assists,1.8 steals, while Morris has recorded 14 points,4.6 assists,1.6 steals a game during that span.

Denver may have difficulty getting to the charity stripe in this showdown. The Nuggets rank 21st in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.186, while Dallas ranks sixth in FTA rate allowed (0.183).

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets are 2 in the NBA with 42.172413793103445 rebounds allowed per game while the Mavericks are 3 with 42.285714285714285 rebounds allowed per game.
  • Denver ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (11.4) while Dallas ranks 28th (16.3).
  • The Nuggets average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Mavericks rank 27th in steals allowed per game (9.1).
  • Dallas averages 33.6 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Denver ranks 19th in three pointers allowed per game (32.1).
  • Denver averages 52.3448275862069 points in the paint per game, which ranks 6 in the NBA. Dallas ranks 8 in points allowed in the paint per game (45.785714285714285).
  • The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.7) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (22.6).
  • The Nuggets rank 2 in second chance points per game (15.448275862068966) while the Mavericks rank 7 (14.178571428571429).
  • Dallas ranks sixth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while Denver ranks 25th (5.8).
  • Denver is 12-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Dallas is 4-2.
  • The Nuggets are 19-5 when they score above 100 points, while the Mavericks are 15-11.
  • Dallas is 5-7 ATS on the road, while Denver is 11-4 ATS at home.
  • Of the Mavericks’ 12 road games, they have 6 overs and 6 unders.
  • The Nuggets have 9 unders and 6 overs in 15 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Dallas has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 102.8 points per game (6.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (2.5 below their season average).
  • The Mavericks\u2019 average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, up from 1.5 for the season.