College Football Free ATS Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen

Victor TrejosUncategorized

The No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+24) are heading neutral to face the Navy Midshipmen at SDCCU Stadium. The game is scheduled to get going at 8:00 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen

Notre Dame is the noticeable underdog here and is currently getting 24 points from oddsmakers. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54.5 points. Multiple good live betting opportunities may present themselves during this game.

With the spread opening at -22 and the over/under placed initially at 55, oddsmakers have shifted this game’s outlook slightly.

The surprising Fighting Irish have gained 5.3 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 3-4.

The Midshipmen have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 9.9 units. They’re 1-6 ATS and have an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Fighting Irish have gone 7-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Midshipmen are 2-5 SU.

The Irish are hoping to remain undefeated after a 19-14 win over Pittsburgh on October 13Their defense allowed the Panthers to rush for 116 yards on 30 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Darrin Hall had a productive day for the Panthers in that one with 62 rushing yards on nine attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Ian Book completed 26 passes on 32 attempts for 264 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Book (31 yards on 16 rush attempts) also led the ground attack in the win and was complemented by Dexter Williams (31 yards on 13 carries). Chris Finke (six receptions, 62 yards) and Alize Mack (six catches, 31 yards) handled the receiving duties.

One game ago, Houston got the victory against this Navy crew by a score of 49-36. The Midshipmen defense allowed the Cougars to pass for 413 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 157 yards and three scores. Marquez Stevenson was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 141 yards on eight catches for Houston. For Navy, Garret Lewis completed nine-of-14 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Lewis (56 yards on 22 rush attempts) and Malcolm Perry (97 yards on 10 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Taylor Jackson (five receptions, 120 yards, one TD) and Perry (one catch, nine yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Notre Dame has run the ball on 58.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Navy has an overall rush percentage of 84.8 percent. The Fighting Irish have produced 179.1 rush yards per game and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Midshipmen are totaling 309.4 rushing yards per game and have 24 total rush TDs.

The Irish offensive scheme has averaged 248.6 yards through the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Midshipmen have recorded 78.3 pass yards per contest and have three total pass TDs.

Defensively, Notre Dame seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 126.1 yards and pass for 214.7 yards per game. The Navy defense has given up 253.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 166.0 yards per game on the ground. The Irish are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.08 to opposing QBs, while the Midshipmen have given up a 7.72 ANY/A.

Book has been more efficient than Lewis recently, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.64for the year (and 6.07 over the past two outings). Lewis’ ANY/A is 7.09 for the year and 3.68 over his past two outings.

These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 24-17 win for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Pick

SU Winner: Navy, ATS Winner: Notre Dame, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Notre Dame D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this year. Navy has registered just seven sacks.
  • The Navy offense has lost six fumbles in 2018 while Notre Dame has lost one.
  • The Fighting Irish offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Midshipmen have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Notre Dame defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Navy has given up eight such plays.
  • The Notre Dame offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Navy has created 17 such runs.
  • The Fighting Irish defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Midshipmen have given up 11 such runs.
  • The O/U for Navy’s last matchup was set at 59.5. The over cashed in the 49-36 loss to Houston.
  • In its last three matches, Navy is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three contests, Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Notre Dame’s last game was 55.5. The under cashed in the team’s 19-14 triumph over Pittsburgh.
  • As a team, Notre Dame has produced 4.2 yards per carry across its past three outings and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Navy has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.1 over its last two.