Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 14 Free Pick


The Chiefs (-7) are set to welcome the Baltimore Ravens to Arrowhead Stadium. This crucial early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

In what might be an AFC playoff preview, Kansas City is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Ravens are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -260. If one team catches a lucky break in the early stages it’ll result in a worthy live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 53.5 points.

This game’s opening line was -7. The total has not moved since it was set initially at 53.5.

The Ravens have gained 0.8 units so far and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 5-7.

The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 7.9 units. They’re 8-3-1 ATS and the over’s hit in seven of their games.

The Ravens are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 10-2 SU.

The Ravens are coming off a 26-16 win over Atlanta last week. Lamar Jackson completed 12 passes for just 125 yards. Gus Edwards (82 rushing yards on 21 attempts) and the signal-caller Jackson (75 yards on 17 carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. Ty Montgomery (five receptions, 42 yards) and Michael Crabtree (three catches, 36 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas City enters this one after just getting a 40-33 win over Oakland in Week 13. The team’s defense let the Raiders rush for 171 yards on 28 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jalen Richard was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 95 rushing yards on six attempts for Oakland. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-38 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns. Spencer Ware (47 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Mahomes (52 yards on nine carries) led the running game as Travis Kelce (12 receptions, 168 yards, two TDs) and Chris Conley (three catches, 25 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Baltimore’s run the ball on 44.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 40.9 percent. The Ravens have produced 129.2 rush yards/game and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are putting up 120.7 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.

The Ravens offensive scheme has logged 253.9 yards/game in the air overall and has 14 passing scores so far. The Chiefs have put up 326.9 pass yards per game and have 41 total pass TDs.

Baltimore should possess an edge in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents run for an average of 87.3 yards and throw for 213.3 yards per game. The Kansas City D has allowed 317.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 122.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Ravens are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.34 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs have allowed a 6.43 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Jackson is up to 362 yards this season. He’s completed 32-of-52 attempts with one scores through the air and one interception. He has a 5.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.51 over the last two games.

Patrick Mahomes has connected on 254-of-383 passes for 3,445 yards, 35 TDs and seven INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A sits at 9.34 for the year and 9.29 over his last two outings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Ravens, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Baltimore’s previous game going into it was 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-16 victory over Atlanta.
  • As a team, Baltimore has produced 4.9 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.4 over its past two.
  • The Kansas City offense has lost four fumbles this season while Baltimore has lost six.
  • In its last three matches, Baltimore is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Kansas City’s previous outing was 54. The over cashed in that 40-33 victory over Oakland.
  • In its last three contests, Kansas City is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Kansas City has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -3-point defeat to Los Angeles on November 19th accounting for the one loss over that span.
  • The Ravens offense has created five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Chiefs have put up 11 such plays.
  • The Baltimore defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Kansas City has given up seven such plays.
  • The Baltimore offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas City has created 12 such runs.
  • The Ravens defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chiefs have given up nine such runs.
  • The Kansas City D has tallied 39 sacks on the year while Baltimore has 35.