Atlanta Hawks vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction


A 10-game home winning streak is on the line for the Dallas Mavericks (14-11), who will be 9.5-point favorites when they clash against the Atlanta Hawks (6-20) at American Airlines Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 12, 2018.

Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Mavericks (5-point favorites) defeated the Orlando Magic 101-76, while the Hawks (5.5-point underdog) beat the Denver Nuggets 106-98. The Dallas game finished 33 points under the projected point total of 210, while the Atlanta game finished 21 points under the projected point total of 225.

Atlanta’s 0.511 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Denver, who had a mark of 0.418. The Hawks’ mark was above their season average of 0.504, while the Nuggets’ was below their season average of 0.522. Dallas, on the other hand, dominated every facet of their game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.256 (above their season average of 0.225) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.5 (below their season average of 24.2). For those same stats, Orlando recorded marks of 0.045 and 14.0, respectively. Dallas’ Luka Doncic had a solid performance, putting up seven points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Atlanta, meanwhile, was led by John Collins, who recorded 30 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.

In their first matchup this season, Kent Bazemore led the Hawks to a 111-104 victory. He scored a game-high 32 points. Atlanta covered as a 2-point underdog and the two teams combined for 215 points, which was well under the projected point total of 235.5. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Atlanta’s largest advantages. They had 31 free throw attempts, while Dallas had 26.

Oddsmakers are known to place the total low when the Hawks are playing, as 15 of their 26 contests have finished over the total. Atlanta heads into the contest with records of 6-20 straight up (SU) and 10-16 against the spread (ATS).

A little over half of Mavericks games have finished over the total. Additionally, Dallas is 14-11 SU and 17-8 ATS.

Collins has really been playing well as of late for Atlanta, averaging 19 points,10.0 rebounds over the last five games.

The aggressive Dallas offense seems poised to dominate from the foul line. The Mavericks rank third in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.226, while Atlanta ranks 25th in FTA rate allowed (0.226). Moreover, the Hawks rank 24th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), while the Mavericks rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.0 percent).

Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks Free Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks rank 17 in assists allowed per game (23.92) while the Hawks rank last (27.692307692307693).
  • Dallas ranks fifth in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Atlanta ranks last (16.0).
  • The Hawks rank fourth in fast break points per game (17.8) while the Mavericks rank 26th in fast break points allowed per game (15.5).
  • Atlanta ranks fourth in blocks per game (6.0) while Dallas ranks 22nd (4.6).
  • Dallas averages 33.56 three pointers per game, which ranks 9 in the league. Atlanta ranks 25 in three pointers allowed per game (34).
  • The Mavericks rank second in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while the Hawks rank 27th (47.7).
  • The Mavericks rank 11 in points off turnovers per game (17.76) while the Hawks rank 28 in points off turnovers allowed per game (22.46153846153846).
  • Atlanta ranks third in steals per game (9.2) while Dallas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (9.1).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Atlanta is 1-2 and Dallas is 4-1.
  • The Hawks are 6-14 when they score above 100 points, while the Mavericks are 14-10.
  • Dallas is 12-2 ATS at home, while Atlanta is 6-7 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Hawks’ 13 road games, they have 7 overs and 6 unders.
  • The Mavericks have 7 overs and 7 unders in 14 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Hawks are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Atlanta has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Mavericks\u2019 average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.0, up from 2.1 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (0.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 117.8 points per game (0.4 below their season average).