Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers – Free Week 14 Betting Preview


The Atlanta Falcons (+6) are traveling north to battle the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and spectators can catch the action live on FOX.

Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Atlanta is a live dog in this Sunday pairing and is currently getting 6 points. The Falcons are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Packers are -220. It appears that there should be multiple decent live betting possibilities in this matchup, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points.

The Falcons have lost 7.2 units so far and are 3-9 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-6.

The Packers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 11.1 units. They’re 4-7-1 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 6-6.

The Falcons have gone 4-8 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Packers are 4-7-1 SU.

The Falcons look to get back in stride after a 26-16 defeat to Baltimore last week where Matt Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for just 131 yards and one touchdown. Ito Smith (just 22 yards on seven rushes) led the ground attack in the loss while Austin Hooper (five receptions, 44 yards, one TD) and Mohamed Sanu (three catches, 37 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Green Bay most recently suffered a 20-17 defeat to Arizona a week ago. The defense allowed the Cardinals to rush for 182 yards on 29 attempts, including two rush TDs. Christian Kirk had a productive outing in the win, recording 54 yards on three catches for Arizona. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers completed 31-of-50 passes for 233 yards and one touchdown. Aaron Jones (36 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) handled the ground game in the defeat while Davante Adams (eight receptions, 93 yards, one TD) and Jimmy Graham (eight catches, 50 yards) led the receiving attack.

Each of these teams sports a strikingly similar (65-35 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Falcons have run for 79.0 yards per game and have eight touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Packers are logging 105.7 rush yards per game and have nine total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Packers may have an edge in terms of RB effectiveness, as their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 4.6 to opponents. The Falcons have registered 3.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.9 to opponents.

The Falcons offense has logged 319.5 yards/contest in the air overall and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Packers have produced 296.6 pass yards per game and have 21 total pass scores.

Atlanta has let opponents run for an average of 130.7 yards and throw for 276.0 yards per game. The Green Bay defense has allowed 246.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 127.8 yards per game on the ground. The Packers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.55 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a 7.27 ANY/A.

Offensively, Ryan has already amassed 3,437 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 291-of-413 attempts with 23 scores through the air and only four interceptions. He’s got a 7.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.51 over the last two outings.

Aaron Rodgers has completed 269-of-435 passes for 3,306 yards, 20 TDs and one INT for Green Bay. His ANY/A sits at 7.40 for the year and 5.29 over his last two outings.

When these two franchises met a year ago, Atlanta got the victory over Green Bay, 34-23.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Atlanta’s previous game going into it was 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-16 defeat to Baltimore.
  • Atlanta has produced 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 1.9 over its last two.
  • Green Bay has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its past two.
  • The Green Bay offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Atlanta has lost eight.
  • Over its last three games, Atlanta is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Green Bay’s last outing was set at 41. The under cashed in the 20-17 loss to Arizona.
  • Over its last three matches, Green Bay is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Green Bay has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 19-point victory over Miami on November 11th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • The Falcons offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Packers have accounted for 14 such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Atlanta defense has given up 12 pass plays of 30+ yards while Green Bay has yielded 22 such plays.
  • The Atlanta offense has created four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Green Bay has created six such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Packers have given up eight such runs.
  • The Green Bay defensive unit has produced 38 sacks on the year while Atlanta has just 23.