The Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1) are coming into the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl as narrow favorites as they prepare to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action and this key afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada is a live dog and is currently getting 1 point in this game. The Red Wolves are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are -105. If one side can catch a lucky break early on it will create a reasonable in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points.
The over has received the bulk of the early sharp action. The game’s O/U was placed originally at 58.5.
The Red Wolves have recorded 2.9 units so far and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 3-8.
The Wolf Pack have lost 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-6-1.
The Red Wolves are 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Wolf Pack are 7-5 SU.
The Red Wolves hope to keep things rolling after a 33-7 win over Texas State on November 24. The Red Wolves defense allowed the Bobcats to run for 242 yards on 40 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offensive side of the ball, Justice Hansen completed 18 passes on 24 attempts for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Marcel Murray (60 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Warren Wand (145 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Kirk Merritt (six receptions, 153 yards, two TDs) and Justin McInnis (four catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Nevada just lost a 34-29 game to UNLV. Ty Gangi completed 27-of-45 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Kelton Moore (129 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and Toa Taua (30 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game as Kaleb Fossum (seven receptions, 58 yards) and McLane Mannix (six catches, 72 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Arkansas State has run the ball on 52.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 46.3 percent. The Red Wolves have rushed for 181.5 yards/game and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are totaling 157.6 rushing yards per game and have 23 total rush TDs.
The Red Wolves offensive scheme has logged 282.0 yards/game through the air overall and has 28 passing scores so far. The Wolf Pack have recorded 285.3 pass yards per outing and have 24 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Arkansas State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 200.7 yards and throw for 175.9 yards per game. The Nevada D has allowed 243.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 135.2 yards per game on the ground. The Red Wolves are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.69 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 6.71 ANY/A.
Hansen likely has the advantage over Gangi in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.91for the year (and 11.36 over the past two games). Gangi’s ANY/A is 7.20 for the year and 6.21 over his past two outings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Nevada Wolf Pack NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Nevada, ATS Winner: Nevada, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Nevada defense has recorded 32 sacks on the year while Arkansas State has 31.
- The Nevada offense has lost 11 fumbles in 2018 while Arkansas State has lost six.
- The Red Wolves offense has produced eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wolf Pack have accounted for nine such plays.
- The Arkansas State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Nevada has given up eight such plays.
- The Arkansas State offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Nevada has created 22 such runs.
- The Red Wolves defense has allowed 21 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wolf Pack have given up 12 such runs.
- Arkansas State, as a team, has produced 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
- Nevada has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
