The 19th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (23-9, 15-6 Big 10), 4.5-point underdogs, clash against the sixth-ranked Michigan State Spartans (26-6, 17-4 Big 10) in the Big Ten Tourney at United Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 130 points and action starts at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 16, 2019.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last contest. The Spartans (4-point favorites) defeated the Ohio State Buckeyes 77-70, while the Badgers (4-point underdog) beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers 66-62. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Michigan State game went 11 points over the projected point total of 136, while the Wisconsin game finished 6 points over the projected point total of 122.
Wisconsin played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.220 (above their season average of 0.181) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.550 (above their season average of 0.520). For those same stats, Nebraska was 0.095 and 0.444, respectively. The Spartans, meanwhile, made 18 of their 21 free throws (85.7 percent), while the Buckeyes had a turnover percentage of 21.0 (above their season average of 16.4). Cassius Winston played well for Michigan State with 18 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Wisconsin was lifted by Nate Reuvers, who contributed 14 points and six rebounds.
Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Badgers are involved, as 58.1 percent of their games have ended under the total. Wisconsin holds records of 23-9 straight up (SU) and 16-13-2 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Wisconsin, games involving the Spartans also have a tendency to go under the projected point total (58.1 percent). Further, Michigan State owns records of 26-6 SU and 22-9 ATS.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the productive offense of Michigan State (ninth in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 116.6) takes on the stingy defense of Wisconsin (10th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 93.3). The Badgers should have an edge in terms of ball security. They rank 12th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 14.8 percent), while the Spartans force the 12th-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.4 percent).
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Michigan State averages 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the nation. Wisconsin ranks 177th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
- The Badgers rank 36th in steals allowed per game (5.2) while the Spartans rank 135th (6.4).
- Michigan State ranks 193rd in three pointers attempted per game (21.6) while Wisconsin ranks 263rd (19.5).
- The Spartans rank second in assists per game (19.1) while the Badgers rank 169th (12.9).
- Michigan State averages 40.9 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the NCAA. Wisconsin ranks 166th in rebounds allowed per game (35.3).
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Wisconsin and Michigan State have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Spartans are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Badgers are 2-2-1.
- During their last five games, the Spartans have scored an average of 76.4 points per game (3.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.4 points per game (2.4 above their season average).
- The Badgers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, down from 8.3 for the season.
