Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ball State Cardinals – 11/13/2018 Free Betting Pick

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The Western Michigan Broncos are set to face off against their MAC counterpart Ball State Cardinals at Scheumann Stadium. The matchup will start at 6:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Western Michigan Broncos at Ball State Cardinals

The Broncos are 3-7 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far in 2018. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 5-4.

The Cardinals are down 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-6.

The Broncos are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Cardinals are 3-7 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.

The Broncos are most-recently on the rebound after a 59-14 defeat to Ohio on November 1 in which Kaleb Eleby completed just 10-of-19 passes for 152 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Chase Brown (only 52 yards on 15 rushes) led the ground attack in the loss while D’Wayne Eskridge (three receptions, 50 yards) and Jayden Reed (two catches, 13 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Ball State most recently fell 45-13 to Toledo. The defensive unit let the Rockets pass for 327 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 204 yards and three scores. Diontae Johnson had a productive showing in the win, posting 100 yards and a score on five catches for Toledo. For Ball State, Drew Plitt completed 29-of-47 passes for 355 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Will Jones (49 yards on 12 rush attempts) and Malik Dunner (48 yards on 10 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Justin Hall (10 receptions, 92 yards) and Riley Miller (five catches, 106 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.

Western Michigan has run the ball on 58.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ball State has a rush percentage of 48.3 percent. The Broncos have produced 200.0 rush yards/game (including 183.3 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 23 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Cards are totaling 166.8 rush yards per game (143.2 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Broncos could hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, since their offensive line has allowed only 22 sacks while their D-line registered 20 sacks. The Cardinals offensive line has allowed 33 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 24 times.

The Broncos offense has logged 243.9 yards/contest through the air overall (242.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Cards have put up 252.9 pass yards per contest (264 in the MAC) and have 13 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Western Michigan has allowed opponents to run for an average of 187.4 yards and pass for 209.7 yards per game. The Ball State defense has given up 217.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 215.1 yards per game on the ground. The Cards are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.50 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 7.92 ANY/A.

Plitt has connected on 38-of-59 passes for 504 yards, two TDs and three INTs. Plitt’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 5.95 for the season and 4.01 over his last two games. In the other locker room, Eleby has put up 152 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 10-of-19 attempts with one passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Eleby has a 3.52 ANY/A for the year, though that number is 6.96 over the past two games.

When these two schools faced each other last year, Western Michigan won easily 55-3.

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ball State Cardinals NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Western Michigan

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Western Michigan’s last game going into it was 64.5. The over cashed in the team’s 59-14 defeat to Ohio.
  • As a team, Western Michigan has averaged 4.2 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
  • Ball State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.2 over its last two.
  • Ball State has lost 10 fumbles this season while Western Michigan has let eight get away.
  • Over its last three contests, Western Michigan is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Ball State’s previous match was 64. The under cashed in that 45-13 defeat to Toledo.
  • In its last three matchups, Ball State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Ball State has lost five of its last six games SU, with a one-point win over Central Michigan on October 13th accounting for its only victory over that stretch.
  • The Broncos offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cardinals have put up four such plays.
  • The Western Michigan defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ball State has given up six such plays.
  • The Western Michigan offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Ball State has created 10 such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Cardinals have given up 13 such runs.
  • Each team defense has produced 18 sacks this season.