Western Michigan Broncos at Ohio Bobcats – College Football Betting Free Pick

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In a battle featuring two offenses that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Tim Lester and the Western Michigan Broncos are gearing up to take on their in-conference rival Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium. The game is scheduled to get going at 6:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Ohio Bobcats vs. Western Michigan Broncos

The Broncos are down 2.6 units so far and 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 3-7.

The Bobcats are down 5.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-5.

The Broncos are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 4-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.

The Broncos are coming off a 35-31 victory over Ball State last week where Jon Wassink completed just 13-of-24 passes for 124 yards. LeVante Bellamy (157 rushing yards on 31 attempts, three TDs) led the ground attack while Keith Mixon Jr. (six receptions, 23 yards) and DaShon Bussell (two catches, 26 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, Miami (OH) knocked off this Ohio team by a score of 24-21. Nathan Rourke completed 15-of-27 passes for 133 yards and one touchdown. Rourke (89 rushing yards on 16 attempts, two TDs) and De’Montre Tuggle (74 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game as Tuggle (four receptions, 19 yards) and Cameron Odom (three catches, 34 yards) led all Ohio pass-catchers in the loss.

Western Michigan has run the ball on 55.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 58.6 percent across possessions in conference play. Ohio has an overall run percentage of 60 percent, and has rushed the ball 65.1 percent of the time when playing MAC opponents. The Broncos have produced 223.4 rush yards per game (including 237.7 per game against Mid-American opponents) and have 31 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bobcats are logging 198.8 rushing yards per game (230 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.

Judging by the numbers so far, the Broncos could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Bobcats have rushed for 5.0 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.4 to opponents.

The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 242.8 yards through the air overall (195.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Bobcats have recorded 208.7 pass yards per contest (204 against MAC competition) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Western Michigan has let opponents run for an average of 186.5 yards and pass for 241.9 yards per game. The Ohio defense has allowed 231.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 196.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.49 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats have given up a 7.72 ANY/A.

Rourke has managed to complete 129-of-217 passes for 1,745 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs for Ohio. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.06 for the year and 4.78 over his past two outings. In the other locker room, Wassink has amassed 2,222 passing yards this year, and has connected on 167-of-281 attempts with 15 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wassink’s got a 7.13 ANY/A, including 6.50 over the last two outings.

When these two teams met last year, Ohio knocked off Western Michigan handily 59-14.

Western Michigan Broncos at Ohio Bobcats Free Pick

SU Winner: Western Michigan

Team Betting Notes

  • The Western Michigan defense has twice as many sacks as Ohio this year (30 versus 15).
  • The Ohio offense has lost seven fumbles in 2019 while Western Michigan has lost four.
  • The Broncos offense has tallied nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bobcats have accounted for five such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards and 14 pass plays of 30+ yards.
  • The Western Michigan offense has created 22 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Ohio has created 15 such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bobcats have given up 19 such runs.
  • As a team, Western Michigan has averaged 6.5 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 7.2 over its last two.
  • Ohio has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.