Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Arkansas Razorbacks – 11/9/2019 Betting Free Pick

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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+3) will meet the Arkansas Razorbacks (-3) at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to SEC Network.

Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Kentucky is the road underdog in this game and is currently getting 3 points. The Hilltoppers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are -140. Some decent live betting opportunities should be unveiled during the game, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.

The Hilltoppers have gained 0.8 units this season and are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Razorbacks have lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 2-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-6.

The Hilltoppers have gone 5-4 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Razorbacks are 2-7 SU.

The Hilltoppers are hoping to get back in stride after a 35-24 defeat to Florida Atlantic last week where Ty Storey completed 32 passes for 380 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Gaej Walker (53 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and the signal-caller Storey (-6 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss. Lucky Jackson (nine receptions, 194 yards, one TD) and Jacquez Sloan (six catches, 51 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

Arkansas most recently fell 54-24 to Mississippi State. The team’s defense let the Bulldogs run for 460 yards on 57 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Kylin Hill was on a different level for Mississippi State, putting up 234 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 21 attempts. As a group, the Razorbacks collectively completed nine-of-24 passes for 101 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Ben Hicks went four-for-13 for 44 yards and one interception while John Stephen Jones was four-of-nine for 25 yards and one touchdown. Rakeem Boyd (114 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Tyson Morris (two receptions, 18 yards) and Mike Woods (two catches, 15 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Western Kentucky has run the ball on 47.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Arkansas has a rush percentage of 46.0. The Hilltoppers have produced 107.6 rush yards/game and have 11 scores via handoffs this year. The Razorbacks are averaging 137.1 rush yards per game and have 10 total rushing TDs.

The Hilltoppers offensive scheme has averaged 252.8 yards in the air overall and has 13 passing scores so far. The Razorbacks have produced 217.9 pass yards per game and have 11 total pass TDs.

Western Kentucky appears to hold the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 125.8 yards and pass for 192 yards per game. The Arkansas defense has given up 222.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 221.0 yards per game on the ground. The Hilltoppers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.41 to opponents, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.59 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Storey is up to 1,185 yards this year. He’s completed 110-of-159 attempts with seven scores through the air and four interceptions. He’s got a 6.25 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.10 over the last two games.

Lucky Jackson, Gaej Walker and Jahcour Pearson have combined to account for 659 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.

In the other huddle, John Stephen Jones has connected on 4-of-9 passes for 25 yards, one TD and zero INTs. Jones’ ANY/A stands at a mediocre 5.00 for the season and 6.29 over his past two outings.

We’re looking for the Razorbacks to control the game’s pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Treylon Burks (315 receiving yards this season) has contributed lately, but Rakeem Boyd (770 rush yards, six rush TDs, 76 receiving yards) and Devwah Whaley (214 rush yards, three rush TDs) have been significant factors in the Razorbacks’ recent offensive gameplans.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Free Pick

SU Winner: Western Kentucky, ATS Winner: Western Kentucky, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Western Kentucky, as a team, has produced 3.0 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its past two.
  • Both teams have lost six fumbles this season.
  • Arkansas has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a 21-point victory over Colorado State on September 14th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • The Hilltoppers offense has registered nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Razorbacks have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Western Kentucky defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while Arkansas has given up seven such plays.
  • The Western Kentucky offense has created five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Arkansas has created 10 such runs.
  • The Hilltoppers defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have given up 27 such runs.
  • The Arkansas defense has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this season. Western Kentucky has recorded 17 sacks.