Week 9 Free Betting Prediction – New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

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In a battle of two clubs that prefer to air it out, the New York Jets (-5.5) are set to take on their AFC East rival Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. CBS has the TV rights and this early afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

In this Sunday AFC matchup, New York is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 5.5 points. The Jets are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are +180. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 41 points. If the underdog gets out in front early, it would likely generate a decent betting opportunity in-game.

The Jets have lost 3.1 units this season and are 2-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-4.

The Dolphins have lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 2-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.

The Jets are 1-6 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 0-7 SU overall and 0-2 SU against divisional foes.

The Jets are most-recently reeling from a 29-15 defeat to Jacksonville in Week 8. Sam Darnold completed 21 passes for 218 yards, two scores and three interceptions. Le’Veon Bell (just 23 yards on nine rushes) led the ground attack in the loss while Demaryius Thomas (five receptions, 63 yards) and Robby Anderson (four catches, 43 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Miami most-recently dropped a 27-14 game to Pittsburgh in Week 8. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Steelers to run for 158 yards on 29 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. James Conner was outstandingfor the Steelers, recording 145 rushing yards and a score on 23 attempts. For Miami, Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-34 passes for 190 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Mark Walton (35 yards on 11 rush attempts) led the ground game in the defeat as DeVante Parker (six receptions, 59 yards) and Preston Williams (four catches, 42 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

New York has run the ball on 39.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has a rush percentage of 35.9 percent. The Jets have run for 63.9 yards per game (including 61.7 per game versus East opponents) and have two touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Dolphins are totaling 65.7 rushing yards per game (75.5 in conference) and have three total rush TDs.

The Jets offensive scheme has averaged 176.6 yards in the air overall (119.7 per game against conference opposition) and has five passing scores so far. The Dolphins have produced 210.6 pass yards per contest (234 in the AFC) and have six total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, New York has allowed 94.9 rush yards and 270.6 pass yards per game. The Miami defense has allowed 260.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 160.4 yards per game on the ground. The Jets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.54 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have given up a whopping 9.6 ANY/A.

Fitzpatrick has connected on 60-of-104 passes for 625 yards, four TDs and six INTs for Miami. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at a terrible 3.39 for the season and 5.16 across his last two games. In the other locker room, Darnold has put up 731 passing yards on the year, and has completed 72-of-103 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Darnold has a 4.85 ANY/A for the year, although that number sits at -0.49 over the past two games.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Dolphins, ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • Each team defense has tallied nine sacks this season.
  • Both offenses have lost five fumbles this year.
  • The Jets offense has tallied one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Dolphins have accounted for two such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards. The New York defense has given up six pass plays of 30+ yards while Miami has yielded 12 such plays.
  • Both teams have produced zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New York offense has recorded 10 running plays of 10+ yards while Miami has accounted for nine such plays.
  • The Jets defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Dolphins have given up five such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Miami’s last match was set at 42. The under cashed in the 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh.
  • In its last three matches, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, New York is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for New York’s previous game was set at 40. The over cashed in the team’s 29-15 loss to Jacksonville.
  • As a team, New York has averaged 3.3 yards per rush attempt over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
  • Miami has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.4 over its last two.