Week 9 Free Betting Prediction: Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos

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The Cleveland Browns (+2) are making a trip west to visit the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. This late afternoon game will start at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Cleveland is a live dog and is currently getting 2 points in this Sunday AFC matchup. The Browns are also receiving +105 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -125. There will probably be multiple solid live betting opportunities for this showdown, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 42 points.

This game’s O/U was set initially at 43, but sharp bettors are hammering the under.

The Browns have lost 3.0 units so far and are 2-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-4.

The Broncos have lost 4.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-6.

The Browns have gone 2-5 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Broncos are 2-6 SU.

The Browns fell to New England 27-13 in a Week 8 matchup where Baker Mayfield completed 20-of-31 passes for 194 yards, as well as one TD and an interception. Nick Chubb (131 yards on 20 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack. Jarvis Landry (five receptions, 65 yards) and Odell Beckham Jr. (five catches, 52 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Back in Week 8, Indianapolis knocked off this Denver team by a score of 15-13. Joe Flacco completed 20-of-32 passes for 174 yards. Phillip Lindsay (59 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Royce Freeman (40 yards on 12 carries, one TD) handled the running game while Noah Fant (five receptions, 26 yards) and Lindsay (five catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Cleveland has run the ball on 40.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 44.7 percent. The Browns have produced 125.4 rush yards per game and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Broncos are putting up 110 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Browns could hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, since their offensive line has yielded only 38 sacks while the D-line logged 37 sacks. The Broncos, on the other hand, have allowed 34 sacks and their defense has logged only 44 sacks.

The Browns offense has tallied 244.3 yards per game through the air overall and has six passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced 227.8 pass yards per contest and also have six total pass TDs.

Defensively, Cleveland has allowed 143.3 rush yards and 242.7 pass yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 205 yards per game to opposing passers and 109.8 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.4 to opponents, while the Browns have given up a 6.70 ANY/A.

Flacco has connected on 150-of-228 passes for 1,609 yards, six TDs and five INTs. Flacco’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 5.62 for the season and 3.99 across his past two games. In the other locker room, Mayfield has put up 1,441 passing yards this year. He’s completed 110-of-192 attempts with five passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Mayfield’s got a 4.53 ANY/A, including 3.56 over the last two outings.

When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Cleveland earned the win 17-16.

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Free Prediction

SU Winner: Browns, ATS Winner: Browns, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Cleveland’s last game was set at 43. The under cashed in the team’s 27-13 defeat to New England.
  • Cleveland has produced 6.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.9 over its last two.
  • Denver has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
  • Denver has lost four fumbles this season while Cleveland has lost five.
  • Over its last three matches, Cleveland is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Cleveland has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 15-point victory over Baltimore on September 29th accounting for the only win over that span.
  • The Over/Under for Denver’s previous game going into it was 42. The under cashed in the 15-13 loss to Indianapolis.
  • In its last three matches, Denver is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Browns offense has produced four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Broncos have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Cleveland defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Denver has given up three such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced four rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Cleveland offense has recorded 26 running plays of 10+ yards while Denver has accounted for 17 such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Browns have given up 27 running plays of 10+ yards while the Broncos have given up 20 such plays.
  • The Cleveland D has 22 sacks on the year while Denver has 17.