Week 8 Free Pick: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

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The Cleveland Browns (+11) are heading east to take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Week 8 Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Cleveland is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 11 points in this AFC game. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to spend $500 to win $100 back on the Pats (-500). The Browns are getting +340 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 46.5 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely result in a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The line opened at -11 while the over/under hasn’t moved since it was set initially at 46.5.

The Browns are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an Over-Under mark of 3-3.

The Patriots have gained 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.

The undefeated Browns have gone only 2-4 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Patriots are 7-0 SU.

The Browns will try to get back on track after a 32-28 defeat to Seattle on October 13. Baker Mayfield completed 22 passes for 249 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Nick Chubb (122 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack. Odell Beckham Jr. (six receptions, 101 yards) and Chubb (five catches, 17 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

New England just earned a 33-0 win over the Jets in Week 7. Tom Brady completed 31-of-45 passes for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (42 rushing yards on 19 attempts, three TDs) handled the running game while Julian Edelman (seven receptions, 47 yards) and White (seven catches, 59 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Cleveland has run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 42.9 percent. The Browns have produced 119.8 rush yards/game and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are totaling 97.6 rushing yards per game and have 12 total rush TDs.

The Browns offense has averaged 252.7 yards in the air overall and has five passing scores so far. The Pats have recorded 291.1 pass yards per outing and have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Cleveland has allowed opponents to run for an average of 154 yards and pass for 240 yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 172.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 74.7 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 0.93 to opposing QBs, while the Browns have given up a 6.62 ANY/A.

Offensively, Mayfield has amassed 1,396 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 104-of-176 attempts with five scores through the air and nine interceptions. Mayfield has a 5.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 1.62 over the past two outings.

On the other sideline, Tom Brady has managed to complete 149-of-232 passes for 1,658 yards, 11 TDs and three INTs. Brady’s ANY/A stands at 7.08 for the season and 5.53 across his last two outings.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Browns, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • Cleveland has produced 6.4 yards per carry over its past three contests and 6.2 over its last two.
  • New England has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three games and only 2.8 over its last two.
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this season.
  • Cleveland has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 15-point win over Baltimore on September 29th representing the only victory over that stretch.
  • The Browns offense has tallied four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Patriots have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Cleveland defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while New England has given up two such plays.
  • The Cleveland offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New England has created three such runs.
  • The Browns defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up two such runs.
  • The New England D has sacked opposing QBs 26 times this year. Cleveland has registered just 19 sacks.