Week 8 Free Betting Pick: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Chiefs (+4) are set to welcome the Green Bay Packers (-4) to Arrowhead Stadium. NBC will televise the action and this pivotal Sunday Night Football game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 4 points in this Sunday game. The Packers are also receiving -170 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are +150. There should be some good live betting opportunities for this game, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48. With the line currently sitting at Kansas City +4, oddsmakers are speculating that this could be a 22-26 victory for the Packers.

Square bettors have been siding with the Packers, as the opening line was -4. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially set at 48.

The profitable Packers are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.0 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.

The Chiefs have lost 1.6 units this year. The team is 4-3 ATS and also owns an O/U record of 4-3.

The Packers have gone 6-1 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Chiefs are 5-2 SU.

The Packers are coming off a resounding 42-24 victory over Oakland in Week 7. The passing game was sharp as Aaron Rodgers completed 25-of-31 passes for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Aaron Jones (50 rushing yards on 12 attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Williams (four receptions, 26 yards, one TD) and Jimmy Graham (four catches, 65 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Kansas City just got a 30-6 win over Denver a week ago. The defense did its job in the victory, restricting the Broncos to just 213 passing yards and 71 rushing yards. Courtland Sutton had a good showing in the defeat, recording 87 yards on six catches for Denver. As a group, the Chiefs collectively completed 20-of-30 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Matt Moore went 10-for-19 for 117 yards and one touchdown while Patrick Mahomes was 10-of-11 for 76 yards and one touchdown. LeSean McCoy (64 rushing yards on 12 attempts) handled the ground game in the win while Travis Kelce (six receptions, 44 yards) and Tyreek Hill (three catches, 74 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.

Green Bay’s run the ball on 41.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 36.5 percent. The Packers have rushed for 99.3 yards per game and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are putting up 82.3 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

The Packers offensive scheme has averaged 288.4 yards through the air overall and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have recorded 328.1 pass yards per contest and have 16 total pass scores.

Green Bay has let opponents run for an average of 128.9 yards and throw for 269.7 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has given up 250 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.9 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.46 to opposing QBs, while the Packers have given up a 6.14 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Rodgers is up to 1,736 yards this year, and has completed 65 percent of his 211 attempts with 11 scores through the air and only one interception. He has an 8.18 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.01 over the past two outings.

Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 138-of-206 passes for 1,907 yards, 12 TDs and zero INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A sits at 9.84 for the season and 7.81 over his past two games.

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chiefs, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City D has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this year. Green Bay has recorded 18 sacks.
  • Kansas City has lost six fumbles this season while Green Bay has lost five.
  • The Packers offense has created six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chiefs have accounted for 11 such plays.
  • The Green Bay defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up two such plays.
  • The Green Bay offense has created one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while Kansas City has created six such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Packers have given up 17 running plays of 10+ yards while the Chiefs have given up 25 such plays.
  • Green Bay has produced 4.3 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.4 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.5 over its last two.