Week 7 Free Pick – Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets

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The Minnesota Vikings (-3) and New York Jets will do battle on the turf at MetLife Stadium. This vital early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to televise the action.

Betting Preview: New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings

New York is the underdog in this game and is currently being given 3 points. The Vikings are also receiving -150 moneyline odds while the Jets are +130. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47 points, and if one side catches a lucky break in the early stages, it would probably generate a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The Vikings are 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.4 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-3.

The Jets have gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-2.

The Vikings are 3-2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Jets are 3-3 SU.

Both teams enter the matchup on two-game winning streaks. The Vikes are coming off a 27-17 win over Arizona last week. The defense did its part in the win, keeping the Cardinals to just 240 passing yards and 61 yards on the ground. Christian Kirk had a productive day for the Cardinals in that one with 77 yards on six catches. Offensively, Kirk Cousins completed 24-of-34 passes for 233 yards, along with one score and a pick. Latavius Murray (155 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack. Adam Thielen (11 receptions, 123 yards, one TD) and Kyle Rudolph (four catches, 37 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

New York just earned a 42-34 win over Indianapolis a week ago. The defensive unit allowed the Colts to pass for 301 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 127 yards. Marlon Mack had a good showing in the loss for Indianapolis, accounting for 89 rushing yards on 12 attempts. For New York, Sam Darnold completed 24-of-30 passes for 280 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Bilal Powell (59 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Isaiah Crowell (40 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game as Jermaine Kearse (nine receptions, 94 yards) and Terrelle Pryor (five catches, 57 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Minnesota has run the ball on 33.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New York has an overall rush percentage of 49.1 percent. The Vikings have rushed for 87.3 yards per game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Jets are logging 130.3 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

The Vikes offensive scheme has logged 320.2 yards/contest in the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Jets have recorded 224.3 pass yards per outing and have nine total pass TDs.

Defensively, Minnesota has allowed 93.0 rush yards and 292.3 pass yards per game. The New York D has given up 292.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.7 yards per game on the ground. The Jets are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.44 to opposing QBs, while the Vikings have allowed a 7.54 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cousins has already put up 1,620 passing yards this season, and has completed 155-of-223 attempts with 11 scores through the air and only three interceptions. He has a 6.71 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Adam Thielen (596 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns this season), Latavius Murray (219 rush yards, one rush TD) and Stefon Diggs (18 rush yards, 344 receiving yards, three TDs) have all played key roles lately.

Sam Darnold has completed 97-of-157 passes for 1,148 yards, six TDs and six INTs for New York. His ANY/A stands at 5.46 for the year and 8.47 over his last two outings.

We’re thinking the Jets will control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with WR Robby Anderson (147 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Isaiah Crowell (211 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Bilal Powell (224 rush yards, one TD) have delivered significant production to the New York offense.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Vikings, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • New York has lost five fumbles this season while Minnesota has lost six.
  • The Minnesota defense has 18 sacks on the year while New York has 14.
  • Minnesota has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
  • New York has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.8 over its last two.