Two teams that like to air it out, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) are set to pay a visit to their NFC South foe Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. FOX will televise the action and kickoff will take place at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
In this Sunday NFC matchup, Atlanta is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Buccaneers are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -160. It appears that there will likely be some good live betting opportunities in this game, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 57.5 points.
The game’s total has been driven higher after opening at 57. The original line has remained firm.
The profitable Buccaneers are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.4 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-0.
The hapless Falcons have lost 3.9 units this season. They’re 1-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-1.
The Buccaneers are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against NFC South opponents. The Falcons are 1-4 SU overall and 1-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Bucs fell to Chicago 48-10 in a Week 4 blowout where the passing game left much to be desired as the Buccaneers completed 25-of-38 passes for 271 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Jameis Winston went 16-for-20 for 145 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Ryan Fitzpatrick completed nine-of-18 for 126 yards and one interception. Ronald Jones II (just 29 rushing yards on 10 attempts) led the running attack in the loss while Mike Evans (six receptions, 59 yards) and Adam Humphries (six catches, 36 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Back in Week 5, Pittsburgh knocked off this Atlanta crew by a score of 41-17. The Falcons defensive unit allowed the Steelers to run for 131 yards on 29 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. James Conner was on a different level for Pittsburgh, recording 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 attempts, along with 75 yards and a score on four catches. As a group, the Falcons collectively completed 31-of-45 passes for 305 yards and one touchdown. Matt Ryan went 26-for-38 for 285 yards and one touchdown while Matt Schaub was five-of-seven for 20 yards. Devonta Freeman (32 rushing yards on eight attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Austin Hooper (nine receptions, 77 yards) and Julio Jones (five catches, 62 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each team sports a remarkably similar (62-38 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Buccaneers have produced 69.5 rush yards per game (including 112.0 per game versus South opponents) and have just a single score via handoffs this year. The Falcons are logging 89.2 rush yards per game (109.0 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.
The Bucs offensive scheme has logged a ridiculous 375.3 yards per game through the air overall (417.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing score so far. The Falcons have produced 324.2 pass yards per outing (323 in the NFC) and have 11 total pass TDs.
Tampa Bay has allowed opponents to run for an average of 87.8 yards and pass for 370.0 yards per game. The Atlanta defense has given up 290.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.4 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.99 to opponents, while the Buccaneers have given up a whopping 9.98 ANY/A.
Ryan has managed to complete 96-of-144 passes for 1,182 yards, eight TDs and two INTs for Atlanta. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.44 for the season and 8.43 over his past two games. In the other huddle, Ryan Fitzpatrick has put up 945 passing yards this year, and has connected on 57-of-79 attempts with eight passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Fitzpatrick’s got a 12.01 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 5.33 over the last two games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Buccaneers, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- Each team defense has recorded eight sacks this season.
- The Atlanta offense has lost one fumble in 2018 while the Tampa Bay offense has lost two.
- The Buccaneers offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Falcons have put up five such plays.
- The Tampa Bay defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Atlanta has given up two such plays.
- The Tampa Bay offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Atlanta has created three such runs.
- Both teams have allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Buccaneers have given up 10 running plays of 10+ yards while the Falcons have given up 18 such plays.
- Atlanta was favored by 4 points in its last match and the O/U was set at 57. The over cashed and Atlanta did not cover in the 41-17 loss to Pittsburgh.
- Over its last three matches, Atlanta is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three matches, Tampa Bay is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Tampa Bay was favored by 3 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 45.5. The over cashed and Tampa Bay failed to cover in the 48-10 defeat to Chicago.
- As a team, Tampa Bay has rushed for 2.91228070175439 yards per attempt over its past three games and 3.6 over its last two.
- Atlanta has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.6 over its last two.
