Week 5 Free ATS Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Posts AdminArticles, Football, NFL

The Panthers (-3) are gearing up to host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Carolina. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and kickoff is pegged for 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers

Jacksonville is the road underdog in this matchup and is currently being given 3 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Panthers are -150. If one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll result in a worthy betting scenario in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 41 points.

The line initially opened at -4 and the game’s O/U was originally 42, so early action appears to be slanted toward both the Jaguars and the under.

The Jaguars are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The Panthers are down 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-2 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Jaguars are 2-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Panthers are also 2-2 SU.

Each team enters this contest on a two-game winning streak. The Jags got their second W in as many tries after a 26-24 victory over Denver in Week 4. Gardner Minshew II completed 19-of-33 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Leonard Fournette (225 rushing yards on 29 attempts) mounted the running attack while Dede Westbrook (five receptions, 66 yards) and DJ Chark Jr. (four catches, 44 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Carolina just got a 16-10 win over Houston a week ago. The team’s defense let the Texans run for 136 yards on 22 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Duke Johnson was a bright spot in the loss, posting 56 rushing yards on six attempts for Houston. For Carolina, Kyle Allen completed 24-of-34 passes for 232 yards. Christian McCaffrey had an outstanding statline in the win. In addition to 93 rushing yards on 27 attempts (and one TD), McCaffrey also reeled in 10 catches for 86 yards.

Jacksonville has run the ball on 42.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Carolina has a rush percentage of 40.4 percent. The Jaguars have run for 135.3 yards/game and have yet to record a score on the ground this year. The Panthers are totaling 108.3 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Jaguars could have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents. The Panthers have ran for 4.3 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.9 to opponents.

The Jags offensive scheme has logged 245 yards per game in the air overall and has eight passing TD so far. The Panthers have recorded 266.3 pass yards per game and have four total pass scores.

Jacksonville has let opponents run for an average of 99.5 yards and throw for 286 yards per game. The Carolina D has allowed 181.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.8 yards per game on the ground. The Panthers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.31 to opponents, while the Jaguars have allowed a 7.42 ANY/A.

Offensively, Minshew II is up to 701 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 70 percent of his 91 attempts with five scores through the air and only one interception. He has a 6.84 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.91 over the last two games.

As a group, Leonard Fournette, DJ Chark Jr. and Dede Westbrook have collectively accounted for 573 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.

Kyle Allen has completed 24-of-34 passes for 232 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs for Carolina. His ANY/A sits at 5.49 for the year and 8.05 over his last two games.

Christian McCaffrey (258 rushing yards, three rush TDs, 183 receiving yards this season), DJ Moore (209 receiving yards) and Jarius Wright (88 receiving yards) have combined for 572 total yards and three touchdowns over the last couple of games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Panthers, ATS Winner: Panthers, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • As a team, Jacksonville has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.2 over its last two.
  • Carolina has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its past two.
  • The Carolina offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Jacksonville has let two get away.
  • The Jaguars offense has tallied one pass play of 40 yards or more, while the Panthers have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Jacksonville defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Carolina has given up one such play.
  • The Jacksonville offense has created three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Carolina has created two such runs.
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up five such runs.
  • The Carolina defense has tallied 18 sacks on the year while Jacksonville has 13.