The Kansas City Chiefs (-3) are entering the American Football Conference Championship Game as favorites as they prepare to battle the New England Patriots. Interested parties are able to catch the action live on CBS and the matchup is scheduled to get underway at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
This Sunday AFC pairing shows the Patriots as the dogs and they’re currently getting 3 points. The Patriots are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -150. There should be some good in-game betting scenarios in this matchup, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 57 points.
The game’s total has moved downward after opening at 58. The original line (-3) has yet to change.
The Patriots are 10-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.1 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-11.
The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors in 2019, gaining 8.1 units. The team is 10-6-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 10-7.
The Patriots are 12-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 13-4 SU.
The Patriots hope to keep things rolling after a 41-28 win over the Chargers in Week 19 in which Tom Brady completed 34-of-44 passes for 343 yards and one touchdown. Sony Michel (129 rushing yards on 24 attempts, three TDs) mounted the ground attack in the win while James White (15 receptions, 97 yards) and Julian Edelman (nine catches, 151 yards) handled the receiving duties.
The Kansas City Chiefs take the field on Sunday having just earned a 31-13 win over Indianapolis in Week 19. The defense held its territory in the victory, limiting the Colts to just 203 passing yards and 87 yards on the ground. T.Y. Hilton was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 60 yards on four catches for Indianapolis. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-41 passes for 278 yards. Damien Williams (129 yards on 25 rush attempts, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Tyreek Hill (eight receptions, 72 yards) and Travis Kelce (seven catches, 108 yards) led the receiving corps.
New England’s run the ball on 45.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 40.2 percent. The Patriots have produced 128.9 rush yards/game and have 22 scores via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are logging 119.7 rushing yards per game and have 20 total rush TDs.
The Pats offense has averaged 279.3 yards in the air overall and has 30 passing scores so far. The Chiefs have recorded 317.9 pass yards per game and have 50 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New England should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 107.2 yards and pass for 265.4 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 289.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 5.88 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are allowing an ANY/A of 6.22.
Offensively, Brady has put up 4,448 passing yards this year. He’s completed 385-of-581 attempts with 26 scores through the air and 11 interceptions. Brady has a 7.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.81 over the last two games.
Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 396-of-597 passes for 5,094 yards, 48 TDs and 11 INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A sits at 8.55 for the year and 7.67 over his past two games.
When these two squads met a year ago, Kansas City got the victory 42-27.
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for New England’s last game going into it was 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-28 victory over the Chargers.
- As a team, New England has produced 5.0 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.5 over its last two.
- Kansas City has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.
- Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.
- Over its last three contests, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last game was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 31-13 win over Indianapolis.
- In its last three games, Kansas City is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Patriots offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Chiefs have put up 13 such plays.
- The New England defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Kansas City has given up eight such plays.
- The New England offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas City has created 18 such runs.
- The Patriots defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chiefs have given up 12 such runs.
- The Kansas City D has sacked opposing QBs 55 times this year. New England has produced just 32 sacks.