Week 19 Free Betting Pick: Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

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It’ll be a NFC-NFC showdown as the San Francisco 49ers (-6) are favorites against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Fans can catch the action live on NBC and this Saturday showdown gets going at 4:35 p.m. ET. When the two clubs met last year, Minnesota beat San Francisco 24-16.

Week 19 Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

In this Saturday NFC matchup, San Francisco is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 6 points. The Vikings are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the 49ers are -230. If one squad can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll create a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.

Odds have swayed a little from when they were originally set. The opening line was -7 and the game’s over/under was initially placed at 45.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Vikings have gained 2.5 units while the 49ers are up 5.0 units.

The Vikings have gone 11-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the 49ers are 13-3 SU.

The Vikes are coming off a 26-20 victory over New Orleans in Week 18 where Kirk Cousins completed 19 passes for 242 yards and one touchdown. Dalvin Cook (only 94 yards on 28 rush attempts, but two TDs) led the ground attack while Adam Thielen (seven receptions, 129 yards) and Kyle Rudolph (four catches, 31 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

San Francisco is coming off of a 26-21 win over Seattle. The defensive unit allowed the Seahawks to rush for 125 yards on 30 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Travis Homer had a productive showing in the loss, posting 62 rushing yards on 10 attempts for Seattle. For San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 18-of-22 passes for 285 yards. Raheem Mostert (57 rushing yards on 10 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running game as George Kittle (seven receptions, 86 yards) and Deebo Samuel (five catches, 102 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Each of these teams has a strikingly similar (51-49) run-pass ratio on the season. The Vikings have produced 133.5 rush yards/game and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Niners are averaging 144.1 rushing yards per game and have 23 total rush TDs.

The Vikes offensive scheme has averaged 233.6 yards through the air overall and has 27 passing TDs so far. The Niners have recorded 251.8 pass yards per contest and have 28 total pass scores.

Defensively, Minnesota has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 107.4 yards and throw for 256.3 yards per game. The San Francisco D has given up 192.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 112.6 yards per game on the ground. The Niners are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.63 to opponents, while the Vikings have allowed a 5.30 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cousins has amassed 3,845 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 326-of-475 attempts with 27 scores through the air and only six interceptions. Cousins has a 7.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.64 over the last two games.

The Vikings will probably try to maintain tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with Adam Thielen (547 yards, six TDs), Mike Boone (273 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Dalvin Cook (1,229 rush yards, 15 rush TDs, 555 receiving yards) have really been focal points in the offensive scheme for Minnesota.

In the home locker room, Jimmy Garoppolo has connected on 313-of-449 passes for 3,730 yards, 26 TDs and 11 INTs. Garoppolo’s ANY/A stands at 7.41 for the season and 7.28 across his last two outings.

The Niners will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Deebo Samuel (771 receiving yards, three receiving TDs), George Kittle (22 rush yards, 974 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Raheem Mostert (719 rush yards, seven rush TDs, two TDs) have seen a lot of action recently.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers NFL Pick

SU Winner: 49ers, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Vikings offense has tallied 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the 49ers have accounted for eight such plays.
  • The Minnesota defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while San Francisco has given up five such plays.
  • Both teams have produced 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Minnesota offense has recorded 58 running plays of 10+ yards while San Francisco has accounted for 61 such plays.
  • The Vikings defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the 49ers have given up nine such runs.
  • The Minnesota D has sacked opposing QBs 51 times this year. San Francisco has recorded 48 sacks.
  • Minnesota, as a team, has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
  • San Francisco has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its last two.
  • In its last three games, San Francisco is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Minnesota’s last game was 50. The under cashed in the team’s 26-20 win over New Orleans.
  • Over its last three matches, Minnesota is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last game going into it was 47. The O/U pushed in the 26-21 win over Seattle.