Week 19 Free Betting Pick: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Posts AdminArticles, Football, NFL

It’ll be an AFC-AFC battle as the Kansas City Chiefs (-10) are considerable favorites as they prepare to battle the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:05 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

In this Sunday AFC game, Kansas City is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. The Texans are also receiving +310 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -440. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 50 points. On the surface it appears that there should be some solid in-game betting opportunities in this showdown.

The over is receiving most of the early sharp action. This game’s total initially opened at only 48.5.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Texans have gained 2.9 units while the Chiefs are up 3.6 units.

The Texans have gone 11-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Chiefs are 12-4 SU.

The Texans just pulled off a 22-19 win over Buffalo last weekTheir defense allowed the Bills to rush for 172 yards on 30 attempts. Devin Singletary had a productive day for the Bills in that one with 58 rushing yards on 13 attempts, along with 76 yards on six catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Deshaun Watson completed 20 passes on 25 attempts for 247 yards and one touchdown. Carlos Hyde (48 yards on 16 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Watson (55 yards on 14 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack in the win. DeAndre Hopkins (six receptions, 90 yards) and Kenny Stills (four catches, 46 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Kansas City just picked up a 31-21 win over the Chargers a couple of weeks ago. The defensive unit allowed the Chargers to run for 108 yards on 25 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Melvin Gordon III was a bright spot in the defeat for Los Angeles, recording 46 rushing yards and a score on 14 attempts, along with 76 yards on six catches. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 16-of-25 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Damien Williams (124 rushing yards on 12 attempts, two TDs) led the ground game in the win as Tyreek Hill (four receptions, 61 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Houston’s run the ball on 45.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 39.4 percent. The Texans have run for 126.5 yards per game and have 18 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are averaging 98.1 rush yards per game and have 16 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Chiefs ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed just 25 sacks while the D-line has logged 45 sacks. The Texans offensive line has allowed 56 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs on just 34 occasions.

The Texans offensive scheme has averaged 254.7 yards in the air overall and has 28 passing scores so far. The Chiefs have put up 293.1 pass yards per contest and have 30 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Houston has allowed opponents to run for an average of 124.1 yards and pass for 280.6 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 242.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.17 to opposing QBs, while the Texans have given up a 6.99 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Watson is up to 4,099 yards on the year. He’s connected on 68 percent of his 520 attempts with 27 passing scores and 12 interceptions. Watson has a 6.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.47 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Texans to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with DeAndre Hopkins (1,255 yards, seven TDs), Duke Johnson (436 rush yards, one rush TD, 395 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Taiwan Jones (zero rush yards, 34 receiving yards) have really been focal points in the Houston offensive scheme.

For the home team, Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 296-of-451 passes for 3,780 yards, 24 TDs and five INTs. Mahomes’ ANY/A sits at 8.38 for the year and 7.34 over his past two outings.

The Chiefs will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Damien Williams (186 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Tyreek Hill (23 rush yards, 788 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and Travis Kelce (four rush yards, one rush TD, 1,155 receiving yards, four TDs) have gotten plenty of touches lately.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Prediction

SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Texans, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Texans offense has tallied 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Chiefs have put up 18 such plays.
  • The Houston defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kansas City has given up seven such plays.
  • The Houston offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created 10 such runs.
  • The Texans defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Chiefs have given up eight such runs.
  • The Kansas City defense has sacked opposing QBs 45 times this season. Houston has produced just 34 sacks.
  • Houston, as a team, has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.2 over its past two.
  • Over its last three contests, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Houston’s previous game was set at 45. The under cashed in the team’s 22-19 win over Buffalo.
  • In its last three contests, Houston is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Kansas City’s last matchup was set at 46. The over cashed in the 31-21 win over the Chargers.
  • Houston has won four of its last five games SU, with a December 29th defeat to Tennessee representing the only loss over that stretch.