Week 17 Free Pick: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

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In the final week of the 2018 regular season, the Cleveland Browns (+5) are set to take on their AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens (-5) at M&T Bank Stadium. CBS has the TV rights and the game is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

This Sunday AFC pairing showcases the Browns as the dogs and they’re currently being given 5 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to put down $200 in order to win $100 back on the Ravens (-200). The Browns are getting +170 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 41 points, and if one side can find paydirt early, it’ll probably produce a decent in-game betting opportunity.

The sharp action has been siding with the Browns. This opening line was originally -6 while the over/under was set initially at 41.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Browns have gained 1.3 units and the Ravens are up 2.3 units.

The Browns are 7-7-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against AFC North opponents. The Ravens are 9-6 SU overall and 2-3 SU versus divisional foes.

The Browns are coming off a 26-18 victory over Cincinnati in Week 16 where Baker Mayfield completed 27-of-37 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns. Nick Chubb (112 rushing yards on 19 attempts) led the ground attack. Rashard Higgins (six receptions, 60 yards, one TD) and Duke Johnson Jr. (six catches, 54 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Baltimore is coming off of a 22-10 win over the Chargers last week. Lamar Jackson completed 12-of-22 passes for 204 yards and one touchdown. Gus Edwards (92 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jackson (39 yards on 13 carries) led the running game while Nick Boyle (two receptions, 15 yards) and Kenneth Dixon (two catches, 20 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Cleveland’s run the ball on 42.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baltimore has an overall rush percentage of 48.4 percent. The Browns have produced 122.9 rush yards per game (including 118.6 per game against North opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Ravens are totaling 143.0 rushing yards per game (121.2 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Ravens could hold an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed just 30 sacks while their D-line has registered 43 sacks. The Browns offensive line has allowed 38 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss on just 35 occasions.

The Browns offense has tallied 259.0 yards per game in the air overall (264.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing TDs so far. The Ravens have produced 235.3 pass yards per outing (281 against AFC competition) and have 18 total pass scores.

Defensively, Cleveland has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 124.5 yards and throw for 279.4 yards per game. The Baltimore defense has given up 218.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 85.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Ravens are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.08 to opponents, while the Browns have given up a 5.67 ANY/A.

Offensively, Mayfield has put up 3,161 passing yards this season, and has connected on 65 percent of his 413 attempts with 22 scores through the air and 10 interceptions. Mayfield’s got a 6.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.34 over the last two outings.

The Browns have tried to maintain tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Breshad Perriman (264 yards) has gotten looks recently, but backfield mates Nick Chubb (872 rush yards, eight rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Duke Johnson Jr. (152 rush yards, 401 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have been significant focal points in the Cleveland offensive scheme.

On the other sideline, Lamar Jackson has completed 71-of-123 passes for 891 yards, five TDs and three INTs. Jackson’s ANY/A sits at 5.93 for the season and 7.40 across his last two games.

The Ravens will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Gus Edwards (20 receiving yards), Lamar Jackson (510 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Mark Andrews (467 receiving yards and three TDs) have gotten a multitude of looks lately.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Browns, ATS Winner: Browns, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Cleveland’s previous game was set at 44. The O/U pushed in the team’s 26-18 victory over Cincinnati.
  • Cleveland has produced 5.1 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.0 over its last two.
  • Baltimore has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its past two.
  • The Baltimore offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Cleveland has lost seven.
  • In its last three matches, Cleveland is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Cleveland has won six of its last seven games SU, with a December 2nd defeat to Houston accounting for the only loss over that span.
  • The Over/Under for Baltimore’s last game was set at 43. The under cashed in the 22-10 win over the Chargers.
  • In its last three contests, Baltimore is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Baltimore has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -3-point loss to Kansas City on December 9th representing the one slip-up over that stretch.
  • The Browns offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Ravens have put up six such plays.
  • The Cleveland defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while Baltimore has given up three such plays.
  • The Cleveland offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Baltimore has created nine such runs.
  • The Browns defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Ravens have given up six such runs.
  • The Baltimore D has sacked opposing QBs 43 times this year. Cleveland has produced just 35 sacks.