Week 17 Free Betting Pick: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

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To conclude the NFL regular season, the Titans (+2.5) are set to welcome their AFC South nemesis Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) to Tennessee. This crucial Sunday Night game gets going at 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC will broadcast the action.

Week 17 Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 2.5 points. The Colts are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Titans are +120. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 44 points. Some good live betting opportunities might present themselves during this game.

The game’s total has shifted lower after opening at 45. The original line has stayed consistent.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Colts have gained 3.5 units while the Titans are up 5.8 units.

The Colts are 9-6 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AFC South opponents. The Titans are 9-6 SU overall and also 3-2 SU against divisional foes.

The Colts look to keep it going after a 28-27 win over the Giants last week where their secondary gave up 309 passing yards. Evan Engram had a good day for the Giants in that one with 87 yards on six catches. On the offensive side, Andrew Luck completed 31 passes for 357 yards, two scores and one interception. Marlon Mack (34 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Chester Rogers (seven receptions, 54 yards, one TD) and T.Y. Hilton (seven catches, 138 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Tennessee just earned a 25-16 win over Washington in Week 16. The team’s defensive unit let the Redskins run for 161 yards on 34 rush attempts. Adrian Peterson had a productive outing in the loss for Washington, recording 119 rushing yards on 26 attempts. As a group, the Titans collectively completed 17-of-25 passes for 211 yards and one touchdown. Marcus Mariota went 10-for-13 for 110 yards while Blaine Gabbert was seven-of-11 for 101 yards and one touchdown. Derrick Henry (84 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as Darius Jennings (three receptions, 29 yards) and Taywan Taylor (three catches, 64 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Indianapolis has run the ball on 37.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tennessee has a rush percentage of 51.8 percent. The Colts have run for 104.0 yards/game (including 63.0 per game versus South opponents) and have 12 scores via handoffs this year. The Titans are averaging 128.7 rush yards per game (141.2 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Colts could have the edge in the trenches, since their offensive line has yielded just 56 sacks while the D-line registered 25 sacks. The Titans, on the other hand, have allowed 35 sacks and their defense has created only 43 sacks.

The Colts offensive scheme has logged 287.3 yards/game in the air overall (338.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 36 passing TDs so far. The Titans have recorded 206.0 pass yards per contest (193 against AFC competition) and have 15 total pass scores.

Defensively, Indianapolis has allowed 102.2 rush yards and 257.9 pass yards per game. The Tennessee defense has given up 228.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 6.27 to opposing QBs, while the Titans are yielding an ANY/A of 5.79.

Offensively, Luck has already put up 4,116 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 68 percent of his 577 attempts with 36 passing scores and 14 interceptions. Luck’s got a 6.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.20 over the last two games.

The Colts will probably try to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to wideout T.Y. Hilton (1,124 receiving yards and six touchdowns), Marlon Mack (650 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Nyheim Hines (291 rush yards, two rush TDs, 355 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have been significant focal points in the Indianapolis offensive scheme.

Marcus Mariota has completed 216-of-311 passes for 2,440 yards, 11 TDs and eight INTs for Tennessee. His ANY/A sits at 5.87 for the year and 4.86 over his past two games.

The Titans also prefer to utilize their backfield. In addition to Derrick Henry (86 receiving yards), Taywan Taylor (441 receiving yards and one receiving TD) and Corey Davis (55 rush yards, 810 receiving yards, four TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Titans, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ last game going into it was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 28-27 victory over the Giants.
  • As a team, Indianapolis has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Tennessee has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.4 over its past two.
  • Tennessee has lost five fumbles this season while Indianapolis has lost eight.
  • Over its last three contests, Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Indianapolis has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a six-point loss to Jacksonville on December 2nd representing the only defeat over that stretch.
  • The O/U for Tennessee’s last game was set at 38. The over cashed in the 25-16 victory over Washington.
  • In its last three contests, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Both passing attacks have produced six pass plays of 40+ yards. The Colts have have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Titans have accounted for 10 such plays.
  • The Indianapolis defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tennessee has given up six such plays.
  • Both teams have produced eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Indianapolis offense has recorded 39 running plays of 10+ yards while Tennessee has accounted for 57 such plays.
  • The Colts defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Titans have given up six such runs.
  • Each team defense has recorded 38 sacks this season.