Week 17 Free Betting Pick – Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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To conclude the NFL regular season, the Atlanta Falcons (+1) are set to take on their NFC South foe Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay enters this NFC game as the underdog and is currently getting 1 point. The Falcons are also receiving -105 moneyline odds while the Buccaneers are -115. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 50 points. There will probably be some good live betting opportunities in this game.

This matchup’s betting odds have shifted a hair from where they initially opened. The opening line was -2 while the game’s total was placed originally at 50.5.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Falcons have gained 2.8 units while the Buccaneers are up 1.4 units.

The Falcons are 6-9 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are 7-8 SU overall and 2-3 SU against divisional foes.

The Falcons want to keep things rolling following a 24-12 victory over Jacksonville in Week 16 where Matt Ryan completed 32 passes on 45 attempts for 384 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Devonta Freeman (53 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and Brian Hill (66 yards on seven carries) led the running attack in the win while Julio Jones (10 receptions, 166 yards) and Freeman (nine catches, 74 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Tampa Bay narrowly dropped a 23-20 game to Houston in Week 16. The defense held its territory in the loss, keeping the Texans to just 184 passing yards and 68 rushing yards. Kenny Stills put up a productive showing for Houston, accounting for 57 yards on five catches. For Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston completed 25-of-48 passes for 335 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Ronald Jones II (77 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Breshad Perriman (seven receptions, 102 yards) and Justin Watson (five catches, 43 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Atlanta has run the ball on 34.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tampa Bay has a rush percentage of 39 percent. The Falcons have produced 84.9 rush yards/game (including 100.4 per game against South opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Bucs are logging 92.3 rush yards per game (81 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 315.7 yards in the air overall (289.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 28 passing TDs so far. The Bucs have put up 328.4 pass yards per contest (288 in the NFC) and have 31 total pass scores.

Defensively, Atlanta appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 109.3 yards and pass for 262.4 yards per game. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed 288.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 72.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bucs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.23 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a 7.04 ANY/A.

Offensively, Ryan is up to 3,943 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 353-of-526 attempts with 23 scores through the air and 14 interceptions. He’s got a 6.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.37 over the last two games.

We expect the Atlanta offense to mix it up in this one. Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper have combined for 584 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.

For the home team, Jameis Winston has managed to complete 339-of-560 passes for 4,450 yards, 27 TDs and 27 INTs. Winston’s ANY/A sits at 5.82 for the year and 6.84 over his past two games.

Breshad Perriman (398 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Ronald Jones II (595 rush yards, six rush TDs, 273 receiving yards) and Chris Godwin (1,333 receiving yards, nine receiving TDs) have combined for 497 total yards and four touchdowns the past two games.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Buccaneers, ATS Winner: Buccaneers, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-12 victory over Jacksonville.
  • Atlanta, as a team, has rushed for 4.8 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.1 over its past two.
  • The Tampa Bay offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Atlanta has lost nine.
  • In its last three games, Atlanta is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Tampa Bay’s previous match was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the 23-20 defeat to Houston.
  • Over its last three games, Tampa Bay is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Falcons offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Buccaneers have put up 13 such plays.
  • The Atlanta defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tampa Bay has given up 13 such plays.
  • The Atlanta offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Tampa Bay has created eight such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buccaneers have given up three such runs.
  • The Tampa Bay defense has sacked opposing QBs 41 times this year. Atlanta has produced just 27 sacks.