Week 13 Free ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

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The Cowboys (-8) are set to welcome the Buffalo Bills to Dallas. This Thursday Night Football matchup starts at 4:30 p.m. ET and CBS is scheduled to have the TV rights.

Thursday NightBetting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

In this Thursday game, Dallas is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Bills are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Cowboys are -310. It appears that there should be some good live betting possibilities in this game, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 45 points.

The sharp action has been siding with the Cowboys, as the opening line was -7. The game’s O/U has yet to change after it was set initially at 45.

The profitable Bills have gained 3.5 units so far and are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-7.

The Cowboys have lost 2.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4 ATS and the over has hit in seven of their games.

The Bills have gone 8-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Cowboys are 6-5 SU.

The Bills are coming off a resounding 20-3 victory over Denver in Week 12 where Josh Allen completed 15-of-25 passes for just 185 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Devin Singletary (106 yards on 21 rush attempts) and Frank Gore (65 yards on 15 carries) led the running attack while Cole Beasley (six receptions, 76 yards, one TD) and Isaiah McKenzie (two catches, 13 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 12, New England took care of this Dallas crew by a score of 13-9. The Cowboys defense allowed the Patriots to run for 101 yards on 27 rush attempts. Julian Edelman had a good showing in the win for New England, posting 93 yards on eight catches. For Dallas, Dak Prescott completed 19-of-33 passes for 212 yards and one interception. Ezekiel Elliott (86 yards on 21 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Randall Cobb (four receptions, 86 yards) and Michael Gallup (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Buffalo has run the ball on 47.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Dallas has an overall rush percentage of 43.8 percent. The Bills have run for 139.2 yards per game and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Cowboys are totaling 129.8 rush yards per game and have 12 total rushing TDs.

The Bills offensive scheme has averaged 226.1 yards through the air overall and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Cowboys have recorded 312.1 pass yards per game and have 21 total pass scores.

Defensively, Buffalo should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 104.4 yards and pass for 204.5 yards per game. The Dallas defense has allowed 232.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 104.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.57 to opponents, while the Cowboys have allowed a 5.85 ANY/A.

Offensively, Allen is up to 2,104 passing yards this season, and has completed 185-of-309 attempts with 12 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has a 5.59 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.32 over the past two games.

Devin Singletary, John Brown and Cole Beasley have combined to account for 483 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the home locker room, Dak Prescott has connected on 237-of-352 passes for 2,989 yards, 18 TDs and 10 INTs. Prescott’s ANY/A sits at 7.75 for the year and 8.26 across his past two outings.

Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and Ezekiel Elliott have combined for 603 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as a trio the last two outings.

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Cowboys, ATS Winner: Cowboys, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bills offense has recorded five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cowboys have accounted for 11 such plays.
  • The Buffalo defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Dallas has given up four such plays.
  • The Buffalo offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Dallas has created four such runs.
  • The Bills defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Cowboys have given up four such runs.
  • The Buffalo D has 33 sacks on the year while Dallas has 28.
  • As a team, Buffalo has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Dallas has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.7 over its past two.