Week 12 Free Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

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The Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) are flying north to face the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. This early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.,

Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In this Sunday AFC game, Jacksonville is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Jaguars are also receiving -150 moneyline odds while the Bills are +130. If one team gets out in front early it’ll generate a worthy live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 37.5 points.,

Sharp bettors have been siding with the Bills. The line initially opened at 4 while the game’s over/under was originally 38.,

The underwhelming Jaguars are 3-5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 8.8 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-6.,

The Bills have lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and also own an O/U record of 4-6.,

The Jaguars are 3-7 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bills are also 3-7 SU.,

These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 10-3 win for Jacksonville.,

The Jags hope to get back in stride after a 20-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 11. Blake Bortles completed just 10 passes on 18 attempts for 104 yards. Leonard Fournette (only 95 rushing yards on 28 attempts, one TD) led the running attack while D.J. Chark Jr. (two receptions, 15 yards) and Dede Westbrook (two catches, 19 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.,

Buffalo is coming off of a 41-10 win over the Jets two weeks ago. Matt Barkley completed 15-of-25 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns. LeSean McCoy (113 yards on 26 rush attempts, two TDs) and Marcus Murphy (69 yards on 14 carries) mounted the running game while Zay Jones (eight receptions, 93 yards, one TD) and Robert Foster (three catches, 105 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.,

Jacksonville has run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has an overall rush percentage of 47.2 percent. The Jaguars have produced 103.0 rush yards/game and have four scores on the ground this year. The Bills are putting up 108.8 rushing yards per game and have seven total rush TDs.,

The Jags offensive scheme has tallied 260.5 yards/contest through the air overall and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Bills have produced 184.0 pass yards per game and have five total pass scores.,

Defensively, Jacksonville has allowed opponents to run for an average of 109.3 yards and throw for 225.3 yards per game. The Buffalo D has given up 216.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 99.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Jags have given up an ANY/A of 5.90 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are allowing an ANY/A of 5.42.,

Barkley has been more efficient than Bortles lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 10.15 for the season while Bortles’ ANY/A is 5.53 (and 6.84 over the last two games).,

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Jaguars, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo defense has produced 25 sacks on the year while Jacksonville has 21.,
  • The Buffalo offense has lost six fumbles this season while the Jacksonville offense has lost 11.,
  • The Jaguars offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bills have accounted for five such plays.,
  • The Jacksonville defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Buffalo has given up one such play.,
  • The Jacksonville offense has created five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Buffalo has created seven such runs.,
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bills have given up seven such runs.,
  • The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous matchup going into it was 38. The over cashed in that 41-10 victory over the Jets.,
  • Over its last three games, Buffalo is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.,
  • Over its last three games, Jacksonville is 0-1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.,
  • Jacksonville has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a 19-point win over New York on September 30th representing the only victory over that span.,
  • The Over/Under for Jacksonville’s previous game was set at 47. The under cashed in the team’s 20-16 defeat to Pittsburgh.,
  • Jacksonville has produced 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.,
  • Buffalo has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.