The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) are traveling north to battle their NFC South foe Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.
Week 12 Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
In this Sunday NFC game, Atlanta is labeled as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Buccaneers are also receiving +150 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -170. This NFC tilt should provide several decent live betting scenarios, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52 points.
The sharp action is siding with both the Falcons and the under. The line initially opened at -3 while the O/U was originally pegged at 54.5.
The Buccaneers are down 1.9 units so far in 2019 and 2-8 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 8-2.
The Falcons have gained 0.1 units this season. The team is 3-6-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-7.
The Buccaneers are 3-7 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against NFC South opponents. The Falcons are 3-7 SU overall and 2-0 SU versus divisional foes.
The Bucs dropped one to New Orleans 34-17 in a Week 11 blowout where their defense allowed the Saints to eat up the clock by running for 109 yards on 28 rush attempts. Alvin Kamara had a productive day for the Saints in that one with 75 rushing yards on 13 attempts, along with 47 yards on 10 catches. Offensively, Jameis Winston completed 30-of-51 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Ronald Jones II (only 13 yards on four rushes) provided the running attack while Cameron Brate (10 receptions, 73 yards) and Mike Evans (four catches, 69 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Atlanta Falcons just got a 29-3 win over Carolina in Week 11. The team’s defensive secondary let the Panthers air it out for 325 yards. Christian McCaffrey was a bright spot in the loss, posting 70 rushing yards on 14 attempts, along with 121 yards on 11 catches for Carolina. For Atlanta, Matt Ryan completed 21-of-31 passes for 311 yards and one touchdown. Brian Hill (30 rushing yards on 15 attempts) handled the running game as Calvin Ridley (eight receptions, 143 yards, one TD) and Julio Jones (six catches, 91 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Tampa Bay has run the ball on 37.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Atlanta has an overall rush percentage of 33.7 percent. The Buccaneers have run for 94.8 yards/game (including 68 per game versus South opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are averaging 74.5 rush yards per game (98.5 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Buccaneers could hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, since their backfield has logged 3.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Falcons have rushed for 3.6 yards per carry and allowed 3.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bucs offense has logged 307.8 yards per game through the air overall (281.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Falcons have recorded 319.1 pass yards per outing (248 against NFC competition) and have 20 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has let opponents rush for an average of 80.9 yards and pass for 307.3 yards per game. The Atlanta defense has allowed 275.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 107.6 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bucs have given up an ANY/A of 7.33 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons are yielding an ANY/A of 7.49.
Ryan has been more efficient than Winston of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.75 for the season and 6.87 over his past two outings while Winston’s ANY/A is 5.53 (and 4.07 over the last two outings).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for Tampa Bay’s last game going into it was 50. The over cashed in the team’s 34-17 loss to New Orleans.
- As a team, Tampa Bay has averaged 4.2 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.5 over its last two.
- Atlanta has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.3 over its past two.
- The Atlanta offense has lost six fumbles this season while Tampa Bay has lost seven.
- In its last three matchups, Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last matchup was set at 48. The under cashed in the team’s 29-3 win over Carolina.
- In its last three matches, Atlanta is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Buccaneers offense has created nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Falcons have accounted for two such plays.
- The Tampa Bay defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Atlanta has given up five such plays.
- Both defenses have produced five rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Tampa Bay offense has recorded 24 running plays of 10+ yards while Atlanta has accounted for 21 such plays.
- The Buccaneers defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Falcons have given up six such runs.
- The Tampa Bay defense has 22 sacks on the year while Atlanta has 18.
