Week 12 Free ATS Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

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The Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) are flying north to take on their AFC South rival Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. This late afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 4:05 p.m. ET and CBS will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars head into this Sunday AFC game as the dog here and are currently getting 3 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Titans are -150. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 41.5 points. Multiple solid live betting opportunities may be unveiled during the showdown.

Betting odds have swayed a little from where they first opened. The opening line was -3 and the game’s total was placed initially at 41.

The Jaguars are down 2.3 units so far in 2019 and 5-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-4-1.

The Titans are up 0.3 units this season. The team is 4-5-1 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.

The Jaguars are 4-6 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AFC South opponents. The Titans are 5-5 SU overall and 0-2 SU against divisional foes.

The Jags fell to Indianapolis 33-13 in a Week 11 thumping where Nick Foles completed 33 passes on 47 attempts for 296 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars rushed for just 29 yards as a team in the defeat.

Tennessee just earned a 35-32 win over Kansas City a couple of weeks ago. The defensive secondary let the Chiefs air it out for 446 yards and three touchdowns. Tyreek Hill was on a different level for Kansas City, recording 157 yards on 11 catches. For Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill completed 13-of-19 passes for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Derrick Henry (188 rushing yards on 23 attempts, two TDs) led the ground game in the win as Jonnu Smith (four receptions, 30 yards) and Anthony Firkser (three catches, 36 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Jacksonville has run the ball on 41 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tennessee has a rush percentage of 46.5 percent. The Jaguars have produced 119.5 rush yards/game (including 73.5 per game versus South opponents) and have one score via handoffs this year. The Titans are logging 113.2 rushing yards per game (107.5 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.

It seems like the Jaguars could own an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has given up just 53 sacks while their D-line registered 37 sacks. The Titans, on the other hand, have given up 47 sacks and their defense has recorded only 39 sacks.

The Jags offense has averaged 265.6 yards through the air overall (255.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing score so far. The Titans have put up 235.1 pass yards per game (229 against AFC foes) and have 15 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Jacksonville should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 134.6 rush yards and 240.8 pass yards per game. The Tennessee defense has allowed 273.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 102.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Jags have given up an ANY/A of 5.77 to opposing QBs, while the Titans are yielding an ANY/A of 6.24.

Tannehill has managed to complete 70-of-97 passes for 830 yards, seven TDs and two INTs for Tennessee. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.04 for the year and 6.45 over his past two outings. In the other locker room, Gardner Minshew II has amassed 2,285 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 188-of-307 attempts with 13 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Minshew II’s got a 6.87 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 4.22 over the past two outings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Jaguars, ATS Winner: Jaguars, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Jacksonville’s last game was set at 40.5. The over cashed in the team’s 33-13 defeat to Indianapolis.
  • Jacksonville, as a team, has produced 3.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Tennessee has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 7.4 over its past two.
  • Tennessee has lost four fumbles this season while Jacksonville has let eight get away.
  • In its last three matches, Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Tennessee’s previous matchup was 49. The over cashed in the 35-32 win over Kansas City.
  • Over its last three matchups, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Tennessee has won four of its last five games SU, with a -10-point loss to Carolina on November 3rd representing the only defeat over that span.
  • The Jaguars offense has produced three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Titans have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The Jacksonville defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tennessee has given up six such plays.
  • The Jacksonville offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Tennessee has created four such runs.
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Titans have given up five such runs.
  • The Jacksonville D has 33 sacks on the year while Tennessee has just 27.