The Vanderbilt Commodores (9-15, 3-8 SEC) will try to end a nine-game road losing streak when they challenge the Arkansas Razorbacks (16-8, 5-6 SEC) at Bud Walton Arena. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 151.5 points with Arkansas set as a 7-point favorite. Action starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 10, 2018, and it can be seen on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
In the Commodores last outing, they beat the Georgia Bulldogs, 81-66. Saben Lee was Vanderbilt’s high scorer with 19 points on 5-for-7 shooting. The Commodores made 16 of their 16 free throws (100.0 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.663 (above their season average of 0.508).
The Razorbacks hope to maintain momentum after defeating the South Carolina Gamecocks in their last game, 81-65. With 25 points on 5-for-12 shooting, Daryl Macon was the top scorer from either team. Arkansas played a nearly flawless game. They had a turnover percentage of 16.5 (worse than their season average of 13.4) and a free throw rate of 0.434 (above their season average of 0.240). South Carolina was 23.1 and 0.333, respectively, for those same stats.
The high-powered offense of Arkansas will battle against the bottom-tier defense of Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks rank 32nd in offensive efficiency, while the Commodores are 298th in defensive efficiency. The Razorbacks should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Moreover, the Commodores, who rank 40th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.286), will clash against the Razorbacks, who rank 305th in opponents FTA rate (0.284).
Of Vanderbilt’s 21 games with betting action, 11 have finished over the O/U total, while 13 of Arkansas 24 games have finished over the O/U total. The Razorbacks hold a significant advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 16-8 SU and 11-13 ATS, while the Commodores are 9-15 SU and 6-15 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Commodores, it’s been Jeff Roberson, who has averaged 22.8 points and 6.4 rebounds, while the Razorbacks have received solid contributions from Macon (21.8 points and 3.6 assists).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams, after the Razorbacks won two out of three meetings last season. In the last contest, Arkansas won 76-62. The Razorbacks dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.515 and a turnover percentage of 14.5. For those same stats, the Commodores recorded marks of 0.375 and 18.6, respectively.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Vanderbilt, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Razorbacks are 15th in the NCAA with 4.7 steals allowed per game while the Commodores are 20th with 4.9 steals allowed per game.
- Arkansas is 7-6 ATS at home, while Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS on the road.
- The Commodores have 6 unders and 4 overs in 10 road games.
- The Razorbacks have 8 overs and 5 unders in 13 home games.
- Vanderbilt ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (17.5) while Arkansas ranks 232nd (24.0).
- The Commodores rank 35th in assists allowed per game (11.3) while the Razorbacks rank 177th (14.1).
- Arkansas averages 4.7 blocks per game, which ranks 32nd in the NCAA. Vanderbilt ranks 141st in blocks allowed per game (3.8).
Betting Trends:
- Arkansas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Razorbacks have been outscored by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Arkansas has defeated opponents by an average of 6.6 points.
- During their last five games, the Commodores have scored an average of 77.2 points per game (4.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 77.4 points per game (4.5 above their season average).
