UTSA Roadrunners vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: 11/9/2019 Free Pick

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In a display of two teams that like to feature their running games, Head Coach Frank Wilson and the UTSA Roadrunners (+5) are gearing up to take on their conference nemesis Old Dominion Monarchs (-5) at Foreman Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium. This Saturday daytime matchup is scheduled to kick off at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Old Dominion Monarchs vs. UTSA Roadrunners

UTSA is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this CUSA game. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to put up $200 to win $100 back on the Monarchs (-200). The Roadrunners are getting +170 moneyline odds. It appears that there should be some good live betting opportunities for this game, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 43.5 points.

Early action has leaned to the Monarchs, as the opening line was -4. The game’s total hasn’t moved after being set initially at 43.5.

The Roadrunners have recorded 0.8 units so far in 2019 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-3-1.

The Monarchs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 6.5 units. The team is 4-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-7.

The Roadrunners are 3-5 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against conference opponents. The Monarchs are 1-8 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.

The Roadrunners hope to bounce back after a 45-14 defeat to Texas A&M last week where the Roadrunners completed 11-of-25 passes for 138 yards and one interception. Lowell Narcisse went seven-for-14 for 90 yards while Jordan Weeks completed four-of-11 for 48 yards and one interception. Narcisse (54 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) also led the running attack and was complemented by Sincere McCormick (43 yards on 12 carries). Zakhari Franklin (four receptions, 46 yards) and McCormick (two catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, FIU got the victory against this Old Dominion crew by a score of 24-17. Hayden Wolff completed 19-of-35 passes for 169 yards and one interception. Lala Davis (58 rushing yards on six attempts, one TD) led the running game as Kesean Strong (four receptions, 32 yards) and Darrell Brown (three catches, six yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Each squad has a similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Roadrunners have produced 169.3 rush yards per game (including 190.5 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Monarchs are averaging 89 rushing yards per game (62.2 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

The Roadrunners offense has averaged 141.9 yards through the air overall (120 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Monarchs have recorded 148.2 pass yards per game (129 in the CUSA) and have two total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, UTSA seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 217 rush yards and 190.5 pass yards per game. The Old Dominion defense has allowed 225.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 134.4 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Roadrunners have given up an ANY/A of 7.08 to opposing QBs, while the Monarchs are yielding an ANY/A of 6.79.

Passing-wise, Narcisse is up to 363 yards this year. He’s connected on 43 percent of his 90 attempts with one passing scores and two interceptions. Narcisse’s got a 2.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.28 over the past two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from UTSA in this one. Sincere McCormick (516 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 110 receiving yards on the year), Carlos Strickland II (146 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Lowell Narcisse (380 rush yards, four rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles lately.

For the home team, Hayden Wolff has completed 19-of-35 passes for 169 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Wolff’s ANY/A sits at a minuscule 2.68 for the year.

We’re looking for the Monarchs to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Eric Kumah (192 receiving yards this season), Kesean Strong (201 rush yards, three rush TDs, 165 receiving yards) and Lala Davis (238 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been key factors in the Old Dominion offense.

These two CUSA foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

UTSA Roadrunners vs. Old Dominion Monarchs Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: UTSA, ATS Winner: UTSA, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • UTSA has averaged 3.6 yards per rush attempt across its last three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Old Dominion has averaged 1.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.1 over its past two.
  • The Old Dominion offense has lost four fumbles this season while UTSA has let seven get away.
  • The Roadrunners offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Monarchs have accounted for four such plays.
  • The UTSA defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Old Dominion has given up five such plays.
  • The UTSA offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Old Dominion has created seven such runs.
  • The Roadrunners defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Monarchs have given up 13 such runs.
  • The UTSA defense has sacked opposing QBs 15 times this year. Old Dominion has recorded 13 sacks.