Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos ATS Prediction 02/29/20

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The New Mexico Lobos (17-13, 6-11 MWC) welcome the Utah State Aggies (23-7, 12-5 MWC) to Dreamstyle Arena as the regular season finishes up. Action gets underway at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 29, 2020, and can be seen on CBS Sports Network.

Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos ATS Odds

In their last contest, the Lobos lost a tough one against the Air Force Falcons, 60-58, while the Aggies had no trouble getting past the San Jose State Spartans, 94-56.

Utah State played a flawless game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 40.0 (above their season average of 31.6) and a free throw rate of 0.194 (matching their season average). For those same stats, San Jose State had marks of 14.3 and 0.090, respectively. New Mexico, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.161 vs. 0.067). JaQuan Lyle played well for New Mexico with 18 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Meanwhile, Utah State rallied around Neemias Queta, who put up 23 points and 10 rebounds.

The Aggies dominated this series last year, taking all three games. In the last matchup, Utah State won 91-83. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Utah State’s largest advantages. They made 45 trips to the line, while New Mexico went just 21 times. This is the first time these teams will clash this year.

Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The upper-echelon New Mexico offense ranks 48th in the nation in that metric at 0.530, while the elite Utah State defense is ranked 34th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.456). Furthermore, the Aggies are among the nation’s elite at getting to the line, ranking 40th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.276). The Lobos, meanwhile, rank 28th at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.169.

Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos Betting Pick

College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • Utah State ranks ninth in assists per game (16.6) while New Mexico ranks 273rd in assists allowed per game (16.5).
  • The Lobos rank 35th in steals per game (8.0) while the Aggies rank 139th (6.2).
  • New Mexico ranks 32nd in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while Utah State ranks 104th (3.3).
  • The Aggies average 41.1 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the nation. The Lobos rank 171st in rebounds allowed per game (35.7).
  • Utah State ranks 143rd in three pointers attempted per game (22.1) while New Mexico ranks 289th in three pointers allowed per game (27.0).

Bettings Trends:

  • The Aggies’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.4, up from 13.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Lobos have scored an average of 65.0 points per game (12.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 76.4 points per game (0.5 above their season average).