The Bulldogs (-4) are gearing up to welcome the Utah State Aggies to Fresno State. This pivotal conference matchup will start at 7:00 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies
Utah State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 4 points in this MWC matchup. The Aggies are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -175. If one program gets out in front in the early stages it will generate a decent live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59 points.
The opening line was -3 while the over/under hasn’t changed since it opened at 59.
The Aggies are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.5 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 3-5.
The Bulldogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 6.9 units. They’re 3-4-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-2.
The Aggies have gone 4-4 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-4 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
These two MWC foes did not get a chance to face each other last season.
The Aggies fell to BYU 42-14 in a thumping where the passing attack left much to be desired as Jordan Love completed 29-of-49 passes for 394 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Gerold Bright (66 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Love (17 yards on 11 carries) mounted the ground attack. Jordan Nathan (seven receptions, 133 yards) and Siaosi Mariner (five catches, 86 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Fresno State is coming off of a 41-38 win over Hawaii. Jorge Reyna completed 17-of-27 passes for 188 yards and one touchdown. Ronnie Rivers (103 yards on 19 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Reyna (96 yards on 11 carries) led the running game as Zane Pope (five receptions, 58 yards, one TD) and Jared Rice (four catches, 46 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Utah State has run the ball on 46.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Fresno State has an overall rush percentage of 50.3 percent. The Aggies have rushed for 153.9 yards per game (including 145 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 180.5 rushing yards per game (199.3 in conference) and have 20 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Aggies may have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has given up only 10 sacks while the D-line logged 32 sacks. The Bulldogs O-line has given up 12 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 24 times.
The Aggies offensive scheme has tallied 265.9 yards/contest in the air overall (196.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have put up 234.9 pass yards per contest (216 against MWC foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.
Utah State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 185.8 yards and pass for 257.8 yards per game. The Fresno State D has allowed 244.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.84 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have given up a 6.73 ANY/A.
Offensively, Love is up to 1,900 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 162-of-272 attempts with eight scores through the air and 12 interceptions. He has a 5.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.11 over the last two games.
Gerold Bright (511 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 114 receiving yards on the year), Jordan Nathan (330 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Siaosi Mariner (489 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played key roles recently.
Jorge Reyna has managed to complete 144-of-223 passes for 1,643 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs for Fresno State. His ANY/A sits at 6.85 for the season and 4.61 over his last two games.
We also expect the Fresno State offense to mix things up this Saturday. As a group, Ronnie Rivers, Jalen Cropper and Jorge Reyna have collectively accounted for 559 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two outings.
Utah State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Pick
SU Winner: Fresno State, ATS Winner: Fresno State, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Utah State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 14 times this season. Fresno State has recorded 11 sacks.
- Fresno State has lost seven fumbles in 2019 while the Utah State offense has lost six.
- The Aggies offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bulldogs have put up four such plays.
- The Utah State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Fresno State has given up 11 such plays.
- The Utah State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Fresno State has created 13 such runs.
- The Aggies defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up eight such runs.
- Utah State has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 26-point victory over Nevada on October 19th representing the only win over that stretch.
- As a team, Utah State has produced 4.3 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.1 over its last two.
- Fresno State has averaged 7.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.8 over its last two.
