Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction

betdsiArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Utah Jazz (11-12) will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (8-13). The Heat opened as 3.5-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 210.5 points and it begins at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 2, 2018.

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Heat (3-point underdogs) defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 106-101, while the Jazz (2-point underdog) beat the Charlotte Hornets 119-111. The Miami game finished 21 points under the projected point total of 228, while the Utah game finished 12 points over the projected point total of 218.

The Jazz knocked down 13 of their 18 free throws (72.2 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.654 (above their season average of 0.515). Meanwhile, Miami dominated nearly every stat category in their game. They had a solid turnover percentage of 8.8 (better than their season average of 13.2) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.1 (above their season average of 26.0). New Orleans put up marks of 14.4 and 25.0, respectively, for those same stats. Miami rallied around Dwyane Wade, who contributed 18 points, six assists and five rebounds. Rudy Gobert, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Utah with 20 points and 17 rebounds.

The Heat dominated this series last year, emerging victorious in both games. In the last contest, Miami won 103-102. The Heat’s 8.0 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Jazz, who had a rate of 10.8. This is the first time these teams will meet this year.

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Jazz are involved, as 65.2 percent of their games have gone over the total. Utah heads into the game with records of 11-12 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS).

Similarly to Utah, Heat games also tend to go over the projected point total (61.9 percent). Moreover, Miami owns records of 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS.

The aggressive Utah offense might be living from the foul line in this battle. The Jazz rank third in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.230, while Miami ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.225).

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 22 in fast break points per game (11.047619047619047) while the Jazz rank 27 (9.869565217391305).
  • Utah ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Miami ranks 26th (6.1).
  • The Jazz average 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Heat rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
  • Miami ranks 14th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while Utah ranks 25th (9.1).
  • Utah ranks 2 in three pointers allowed per game (27.26086956521739) while Miami ranks 8 (29.761904761904763).
  • The Jazz rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while the Heat rank 28th (16.2).
  • The Jazz rank 15 in assists per game (23.652173913043477) while the Heat rank 25 (22).
  • Miami averages 46.76190476190476 points in the paint per game, which ranks 17 in the NBA. Utah ranks 19 in points allowed in the paint per game (49.56521739130435).
  • Utah ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (42.3) while Miami ranks 21st (45.9).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Miami is 3-1 and Utah is 4-2.
  • The Jazz are 9-6 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 7-10.
  • Utah is 8-7 ATS on the road, while Miami is 4-8 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of the Heat’s 12 home games, while 8 of the Jazz’s 15 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Utah and Miami are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Jazz have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Heat have 3 unders and 2 overs
  • The Jazz’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 2.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.8 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (1.8 below their season average).