The Utah Jazz (16-22) will try to end a five-game road losing streak when they go head-to-head against the Denver Nuggets (20-17) at Pepsi Center. Denver opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets Free Preview
The Jazz fell to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, 108-98. Utah’s Joe Johnson finished with 20 points and seven rebounds in the game. New Orleans had a better offensive rebounding percentage (18.9 vs. 14.6). Utah, meanwhile, forced the Pelicans into a turnover percentage of 18.6 (above their season average of 13.9).
In the Nuggets last matchup, they dismantled the Phoenix Suns, 134-111. With 36 points on 14-for-17 shooting, Gary Harris was the games high scorer. Denver played a nearly perfect game. They had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.695 (above their season average of 0.526) and a free throw rate of 0.244 (above their season average of 0.191). Phoenix was 0.495 and 0.217, respectively, for those same stats.
This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Denver. Denver ranks 27th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.2 percent), while the gambling defense of Utah forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.8 percent).
Of Utah’s 38 games, 20 have finished under the projected point total, while 20 of Denver’s 37 games have finished under the O/U total. The Nuggets have the significant advantage straight up (SU) (20-17 vs. 16-22), but both teams are close to the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
The Jazz’s Derrick Favors (16.2 points and 7.8 rebounds) and Donovan Mitchell (18.8 points, 3.4 assists and 2.2 steals) have been playing at a high level over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have gotten solid contributions from Jamal Murray (19.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists) and Trey Lyles (16.0 points and 8.2 rebounds).
These two teams have already met three times this season, with the Jazz winning two. Murray scored a game-high 22 points in the most recent matchup, in which the Nuggets defeated the Jazz 107-83, covering as 6-point favorites. He also put up eight rebounds. The two teams combined to score 190 points, which was 14.5 points below the projected point total of 204.5 points. Denver had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.549 vs. 0.381). Utah, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (6.9 vs. 9.0).
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank fourth in rebounds per game (45.6) while the Jazz rank 26th (40.4).
- Utah averages 17.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Denver ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.0).
- Utah averages 9.2 steals per game, which ranks second in the league. Denver ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
- Utah is 6-12 ATS on the road, while Denver is 10-7 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 10 of the Jazz’s 18 road games, while 9 of the Nuggets 17 home games have gone under.
- When allowing below 100 points, Utah and Denver are both 10-2.
- The Jazz are 14-9 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 17-11.
- The Nuggets rank third in points in the paint per game (49.3) while the Jazz rank 23rd (41.6).
- Denver ranks third in fast break points per game (14.4) while Utah ranks 27th (8.5).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.2) while the Jazz rank 24th (10.5).
- The Jazz average 29.9 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (28.9).
- Utah ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Denver ranks 25th (24.1).
Betting Trends:
- Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Utah is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.8, up from 1.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 95.0 points per game (6.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (7.3 above their season average).
