The Texas State Bobcats (14-16, 7-10 SBC) and UT Arlington Mavericks (18-12, 9-8 SBC) will battle at Strahan Coliseum to close out the regular season. UT Arlington is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 138.5 points. Action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, March 2, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN2.
UT Arlington Mavericks at Texas State Bobcats Free Preview
The Mavericks were victorious over the Georgia State Panthers in their last matchup, 89-81. Kevin Hervey was the top scorer from either team with 28 points on 9-for-20 shooting. UT Arlington dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.411 (above their season average of 0.227) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 29.7 (below their season average of 30.3). For those same stats, Georgia State put up marks of 0.088 and 17.8, respectively.
In the Bobcats’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Georgia Southern Eagles, 81-77. Tre’Larenz Nottingham was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 9-for-15 shooting. Georgia Southern had a turnover percentage of 9.0 (better than their season average of 13.8). Texas State, on the other hand, held the Eagles to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.7 (below their season average of 32.9).
Texas State might have difficulty scoring as they square off against one of the nation’s best defenses. UT Arlington currently ranks 64th in defensive efficiency while the Bobcats rank 264th in offensive efficiency. Opposite styles will be on display in this showdown. The up-and-down Mavericks rank 23rd in possessions per game, while the more methodical Bobcats rank 337th.
Of UT Arlington’s 27 games with betting action, 18 have finished over the O/U total, while 12 of Texas State’s 23 games have finished under the O/U total. The Mavericks hold a substantial advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 18-12 SU and 14-12-1 ATS, while the Bobcats are 14-16 SU and 10-13 ATS.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Erick Neal, who has averaged 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals, while the Bobcats have received solid contributions from Nijal Pearson (16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals).
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to score 138 points in that game, which was just over the projected point total of 134.5. The Mavericks won 70-68, but were unable to cover as 8-point favorites. The Mavericks played a nearly perfect game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.250 and an effective field goal percentage of 0.500. For those same stats, the Bobcats were 0.206 and 0.437, respectively. Hervey scored a game-high 33 points.
UT Arlington Mavericks at Texas State Bobcats ATS Prediction
Free Basketball Tip: SU Winner – UT Arlington, ATS Winner – UT Arlington, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 30th in assists per game (16.4) while the Bobcats rank 149th (13.5).
- UT Arlington averages 7.0 steals per game, which ranks 67th in the NCAA. Texas State ranks 107th in steals allowed per game (6.1).
- On the road, UT Arlington is 6-8 ATS with 11 overs and 3 unders.
- Texas State is 0-9 ATS at home with 5 unders and 4 overs.
- Texas State ranks 113th in three pointers allowed per game (20.9) while UT Arlington ranks 292nd (27.6).
- The Bobcats rank 26th in rebounds allowed per game (31.2) while the Mavericks rank 196th (36.2).
- UT Arlington ranks 31st in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while Texas State ranks 180th (4.2).
Bettings Trends:
- Texas State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 push in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, UT Arlington is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Bobcats have been outscored by an average of 10.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Texas State has defeated opponents by an average of 1.3 points.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 78.4 points per game (0.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 79.2 points per game (5.6 above their season average).
