Expect a shootout when the New Mexico Lobos (14-14, 9-6 MWC) and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (19-9, 8-7 MWC) square off at Dreamstyle Arena. New Mexico is a 2-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 165.5 points. Action gets underway at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 25, 2018, and it can be seen on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The last time the Runnin’ Rebels played, they lost to the Fresno State Bulldogs, 77-64. UNLV’s Brandon McCoy recorded 12 points and 11 rebounds in the contest. Fresno State held the Runnin’ Rebels to an effective field goal percentage of 0.316 (below their season average of 0.551). UNLV, meanwhile, held the Bulldogs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.9 (below their season average of 30.0).
The Lobos come in on a high note after beating the Wyoming Cowboys in their last game, 119-114. Sam Logwood played a pivotal role for New Mexico with 24 points and nine rebounds. New Mexico played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.2 (below their season average of 26.7) and a free throw rate of 0.533 (above their season average of 0.234). Wyoming was 12.1 and 0.422, respectively, for those same stats.
There could be a fair amount of transition offense in this contest that features a pair of the NCAA’s more fast-breaking teams. New Mexico currently ranks 46th in possessions per game (72.7) and UNLV is 16th (74.8). Furthermore, the elite offense of the Runnin’ Rebels ranks 59th in effective field goal percentage (0.543), while the Lobos are 34th-worst in the nation at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.545).
Of UNLV’s 27 games with betting action, 17 have finished over the O/U total, while 13 of New Mexico’s 25 games have finished under the projected point total. The Runnin’ Rebels have the better straight up (SU) record (19-9 vs. 14-14), but the Lobos hold the substantial advantage against the spread (ATS) (14-12 vs. 12-15-1).
Jovan Mooring has been playing at a high level over the last five games for UNLV, averaging 18.6 points and 3.2 assists per game.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 166 points, just over the projected point total of 161. The Lobos won 85-81, covering as 8-point underdogs. The Lobos 13.0 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Runnin’ Rebels, who had a rate of 13.8. In the loss, Shakur Juiston had a double-double with 14 points and 14 rebounds.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos Betting Prediction
Free Prediction: SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Runnin’ Rebels average 16.2 assists per game, which ranks 33rd in the NCAA. The Lobos rank 152nd in assists allowed per game (13.6).
- UNLV ranks 34th in blocks per game (4.6) while New Mexico ranks 147th (2.9).
- On the road, UNLV is 4-6-1 ATS with 6 unders and 5 overs.
- New Mexico is 9-4 ATS at home with 7 unders and 5 overs.
- New Mexico ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (30.1) while UNLV ranks 284th (16.8).
- The Runnin’ Rebels rank 10th in rebounds per game (40.6) while the Lobos rank 281st (31.4).
- New Mexico averages 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 32nd in the NCAA. UNLV ranks 169th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
Betting Trends:
- New Mexico is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, UNLV is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders.
- The Lobos average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 3.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Runnin’ Rebels have scored an average of 74.4 points per game (9.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 78.4 points per game (2.1 above their season average).
